India’s plan to have a workable “boomer” submarine that can launch nuclear missiles in the next 24 to 36 months will likely throw Asia’s balance of power off kilter and force China and Pakistan to expand their nuclear arsenals. The new Indian sub will also add to concerns about the build-up of nuclear missiles in South Asia, and highlight the fact that land-based threats are only half the problem.
India’s new sub shifts the focus from land to sea – something that China and Pakistan have been dreading. A potential Indian nuclear navy could pinch and disrupt sea lines of communication, block Chinese oil tankers, and interfere with Pakistani trade in the Port of Karachi – not to mention changing the equation during a nuclear weapon exchange among the three countries. LIGNET believes a fleet of Indian nuclear submarines (achievable in five to seven years) could challenge China’s sea lanes and increase the Indian navy’s already sizeable advantage over the Pakistani navy.
Background
India reportedly is working hard to achieve a nuclear triad – the ability to deliver nuclear weapons by air, land, and sea. This triad would be used to deliver weapons from India’s medium-sized nuclear arsenal. According to a 2011 estimate from the International Panel of Fissile Materials, an independent arms control group, India has 80-100 nuclear warheads and enough weapons-grade plutonium for at least 100 additional devices.
India’s nuclear ballistic missile program is led by the Agni V, a land-based long-range missile with a range of 3,000 miles and a payload that can carry over a ton. The Agni-V is designed to escape detection and attack since it is solid-fueled and road and rail mobile. The Agni V was successfully tested in April 2012 and can ultimately reach both Shanghai and Beijing. It is not yet operational.
India depends on three other short and medium-range nuclear missiles that have been deployed for several years. Short-range missiles have a maximum range of 93 miles while the medium-range missiles have a range of 435 miles. Newer long-range ballistic missiles that are cousins of the Agni V (Agni III and Agni IV) had successful tests this month but are not believed to be completely mission capable.
India’s nuclear air force uses fighter bombers such as the Mirage 2000H “Vajra” and the Jaguar “Shamsher.” India’s air force is the fourth largest in the world and is advanced for a developing country. India is attempting to upgrade its domestic version of the MiG-27 “Flogger” fighters to carry nuclear bombs. It is also ordering more sophisticated Dassault “Rafale” nuclear-capable bombers from France.
India’s navy is also engaged in nuclear-related upgrades. The new Indian nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, is undergoing sea trials and may be operational in late 2013. The Arihant is a “boomer sub” that has several tubes for launching nuclear missiles while submerged.
The Indian navy is testing two submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the short-range K-15 and the long-range K-4. Once the Arihant is seaworthy, it will begin underwater test launches to complete India’s nuclear triad. The navy also wants to build four other boomers and six nuclear fast-attack subs over the next 10 years.
China and Pakistan Have an Answer for India’s Nuclear Force
China’s strategic nuclear force is much larger and far more advanced than India’s. The countries share a 2,100-mile border and China has deployed numerous short, medium, and intercontinental ballistic missiles in Tibet capable of striking India.
Pakistan can match India’s nuclear arsenal with its land and aerial delivery systems. Pakistan has a diversified arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles including a planned nuclear-tipped tactical missile. The Pakistan Air Force is believed to have 50 Chinese made Nanchang A-5C “Fantans” fighters that can drop nuclear bombs.
Mohan Guruswamy, an analyst with the Center for Policy Alternatives in New Delhi, told the London Telegraph on August 9 that India’s new sub has “changed the equation (between India and China) considerably . . . within seven years India should have a varied fleet which would, in theory, be able to block Chinese access to the Indian Ocean via the Strait of Malacca.”
The Malacca Strait is located south of Malaysia and it connects the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. Twenty-five percent of global trade, and a big chunk of Chinese exports, pass through the strait. But Beijing worries most about its oil imports that depend on an enormous fleet of oil tankers that use the Malacca every day. India’s nuclear submarines could someday challenge this access and any disruption in energy supplies would have immediate effects on the Chinese economy. Indian boomers or fast-attack subs operating that close to China would be unthinkable for Beijing.
To make sure Chinese oil supplies are not interrupted, Chinese naval war planners have a maritime strategy called the “String of Pearls.” According to a June 2012 report from the Brookings Institution, this is a network of naval bases that could protect the oil shipping lanes and shipping lanes of communication to the Middle East. Under this plan, each facility or “lily pad” would stage aircraft, supplies, fuel, plus maintenance, radar, and communication facilities.
Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is a critical part of this strategy and the Chinese have already started prep work for an installation at the Port of Gwadar near the Gulf of Oman in the Arabian Sea of southwest Pakistan. This forward base would be responsible for the oil shipping lanes in that part of the Indian Ocean.
With a fleet of nuclear submarines, the Indian navy could contest the Chinese Navy’s intentions in this part of the world. Pakistan’s navy will also have its hands full. The vital Port of Karachi, about 200 miles east of Gwadar, could also be threatened by Indian nuclear subs and submarine-launched missiles.
China and Pakistan’s navies are equipped with anti-submarine frigates and aircraft with advanced torpedoes. They also both have an array of submarines. Pakistan is attempting to develop its own nuclear submarine, but it is several years away. China is thought to have nine nuclear attack submarines and four ballistic missile subs.
LIGNET’s Senior Analyst Jack Caravelli thinks India will need to make major investments in time, money, and training before these capabilities can effectively disrupt its rivals in South Asia, but he believes India is on a competitive path. According to Caravelli,
“From a military perspective, India’s ballistic missile and naval development plans make great sense. Nonetheless, these looming and significant enhancements to India’s defense posture doubtless will be seen as threatening by China and Pakistan, nations with a long and troubled history of poor relations with India. Nuclear-related events in the Middle East for good reason draw much international focus but South Asia’s ongoing nuclear competition also has multiple flash points.”
Analysis
Observers have already made many references to a coming South Asian arms race that would destabilize the region, but these opinions are mostly based on escalation and advancement of the technology behind land-based ballistic missiles. China and Pakistan view India’s Agni long-range missiles as a threat, but they are not thought to be “first strike” weapons since New Delhi has pledged that it would never conduct a nuclear first strike.
India has improved its survivability and its offensive prowess for a “second strike” scenario. It should be noted that most of its current missiles are of short range with small payloads that threaten Pakistan more than China. But the longer range, heavy payload Agni V is clearly designed to target China.
Although the Agni missiles are mostly solid-fueled and either road or rail mobile, the best nuclear delivery system in terms of survivability are submarine-launched ballistic missiles. This could be India’s biggest nuclear breakthrough. Its new nuclear sub will likely be operational in two years. India’s sea-launched missiles could be operational one or two years after the sub is launched. By comparison, Pakistan’s nuclear submarine program is far from maturity.
A nuclear sub has other advantages for India’s navy. Nuclear subs are hard to detect and can stay out at sea for weeks, or even months. If India could deploy a fleet of boomers and fast attack subs, its navy could patrol the waters between the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz, giving it the ability to launch nuclear weapons at military and even civilian targets in Pakistan and China.
This is why China and Pakistan naval planners are having fits. China does not currently have a blue-water navy that can keep sea lanes open for its energy shipments from the Middle East. Until its navy matures to that level, the String of Pearls concept will have to do. But that cannot guarantee access for its oil tankers if the Indian nuclear navy develops to its potential. The so-called “lily pad” forward naval bases would be at risk from India’s submarines.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s navy would also lose much of its superiority in the Arabian Sea since Indian subs could lurk in the waters off the Port of Karachi and even block shipping lanes there if needed Pakistan would also have less time to respond to nuclear missiles if launched from submarines. In a conventional war, India could someday use cruise missiles from submarines – another headache for the Pakistani military.
Conclusion
An Indian nuclear navy changes the decision-making calculus for policy makers in Pakistan and China and intensifies the arms race. With India likely to achieve its nuclear triad goals with at least one functioning nuclear boomer sub in the next two to three years, Pakistan will step up its efforts to develop its own boomers and China will increase its naval and missile-based arsenal aimed at India.
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