SPY EYES

Farhan Bokhari, a political commentator from Islamabad, has said in an article written for the UK-based Jane’s Defence Weekly that China is likely to sell up to six Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines to Pakistan before the end of this year. The export version of the Yuan-class submarine is known as the S20.

Bokhari said the deal had been first revealed in 2011 by a Pakistani government minister but without giving details of how many submarines would be sold. Sources from Islamabad have confirmed that the deal is likely to be sealed before the end of 2014.

A senior official told Jane’s Defense Weekly that negotiations on the technical details of the deal are almost done and that the present discussions are mainly about the financing. Bokhari said the contract would enhance China’s rapidly growing role as the main supplier of military hardware to Pakistan and fill an important gap in the capabilities of the Pakistan navy. China’s Global Times said the deal will certainly boost Pakistan’s maritime power in relation to its chief rival India.

Pakistan currently operates five French-built submarines including three Agosta 90B Khalid-class submarines purchased in the 1990s and two ageing Agosta 70 Hashmat-class boats dating from the late 1970s. The country had sought to purchase three German-built Type 214 submarines back in 2009 but this deal was put on hold due to the cost, reported to be in excess of US$2 billion at the time.

China has also agreed to provide two large civil nuclear reactors which will be built in Karachi. A source from the Pakistani government said China’s Eximbank has agreed to extend a US$6.5 billion loan for the reactors.

Want China Times

Elections in India are known as a one-of-a-kind festival of democracy, replete with colorful pageantry, flamboyant personalities, and very large numbers. The size of the country’s electorate when India heads to the polls for parliamentary elections later this spring is expected to reach nearly 800 million. According to census data, an estimated 150 million people are eligible to vote for the first time—a figure larger than the total number of voters that took part in the 2012 U.S. presidential elections.

Elections certainly bring out the best in India’s raucous democracy, but they also expose some of its blemishes. Consider this extraordinary figure: 30 percent of members of parliament have criminal cases pending against them. And that is an increase from the previous election in 2004, when “only” 24 percent of MPs were similarly situated.

In the fight to curb these figures, there have been some positive developments and valiant efforts to raise awareness. The Supreme Court of India recently decided that sitting politicians who are convicted of criminal acts should be removed from office upon conviction—a new practice in India. And for the first time, an anticorruption party vaulted to victory in Delhi’s state assembly. These are certainly bright spots, but, if recent state elections are any indication, efforts thus far have barely scratched the surface.

Real change will take significantly more sweeping measures to get to heart of the crime-politics nexus. In India’s electoral marketplace, as in any market, there are underlying supply and demand factors that facilitate exchange. And in this case, politicians with criminal records are supplying what voters and parties demand: candidates who are effective and well-funded.

A wellspring of information about India’s political class was tapped in 2003, introducing a new level of transparency about India’s electoral aspirants and elected officials. In response to landmark public interest litigation filed by civil society watchdogs, the Supreme Court of India ruled that any person standing for elected office at the state or national level must submit, at the time of nomination, a judicial affidavit detailing his or her financial assets and liabilities, education qualifications, and pending criminal cases.

The disclosures are not without their shortcomings. Crucially, the information is self-reported, which means that in the case of financial details in particular, the accuracy of the affidavits can be questioned. In addition, the data on criminality refers to ongoing cases rather than convictions; due to the vagaries of India’s justice system, it can take decades for an indictment to produce a conviction, if at all.

Nevertheless, the data—taken as a whole—gives a reasonable snapshot of the biographical profiles of India’s most influential lawmakers. And the picture isn’t pretty.

The 15th Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament), whose term expires at the end of May 2014, is home to 162 MPs with pending criminal cases. These cases involve a diverse array of charges, both large and small, ranging from mischief to murder and nearly everything in between. If one were to focus only on serious charges—those unrelated to electioneering or a politician’s daily vocation such as those involving murder, kidnapping, and physical assault—approximately 14 percent or 76 MPs face pending cases.

The situation at the state and local levels, though lacking comparable scrutiny, is similar. Roughly one in three members of state assemblies (31 percent) is involved in at least one criminal case. Again about half, roughly 15 percent, face serious charges.

There has been no systematic analysis of panchayats (village governments) and urban local bodies, but there is evidence that local tiers of governance are hardly free of criminality. Based on data collected by the Association for Democratic Reforms, 17 percent and 21 percent of municipal corporators in Mumbai and Delhi, respectively, declared involvement in criminal cases.

In one sense, the answer to why political parties in India nominate candidates with criminal backgrounds is painfully obvious: because they win (see figure 1). In the 2004 or the 2009 parliamentary elections, a candidate with no criminal cases pending had—on average—a 7 percent chance of winning. Compare this with a candidate facing a criminal charge: he or she had a 22 percent chance of winning. Granted, this simple comparison does not take into account numerous other factors such as education, party, or type of electoral constituency. Nevertheless, the contrast is marked.

Of course, the real question is what makes these candidates winnable. At least part of the answer comes down to cold, hard cash—an area in which those who break the law often have a leg up. Election costs in India have grown considerably over the years thanks to a host of factors, including a growing population, a marked increase in the competiveness of elections, and elevated voter expectations of pre-election handouts.

Money does not buy elections in India; what a well-financed campaign buys is viability. Indeed, there is a strong correlation between a parliamentary candidate’s personal assets—a good proxy for financial capacity—and the likelihood of election (see figure 2). Drawing on data from 2004 and 2009, the poorest 20 percent of candidates, in terms of personal financial assets, had a 1 percent chance of winning parliamentary elections. The richest quintile, in contrast, had a greater than 25 percent shot.

Beyond the draw of a higher likelihood of success, parties value “muscle” (criminality, in Indian parlance) because it often brings with it the added benefit of money.

As election costs have soared, parties have struggled to find legitimate sources of funding, which is a partial reflection of the general decline in their organizational strength. As a result, they place a premium on candidates who can bring resources into the party and will not drain limited party coffers. The quest for private funds is further propelled by an ineffectual election finance regime, which is marked by numerous loopholes and a lack of transparency.

When it comes to campaign cash, candidates accused of breaking the law have a distinct advantage: they both have access to liquid forms of finance and are willing to deploy it in the service of politics. In the last two parliamentary elections, roughly 6 percent of candidates in the lowest quintile of candidate wealth (or poorest one-fifth) faced criminal cases compared to nearly 20 percent of candidates in the top quintile (see figure 3).

Money is an important part of the story but, on its own, is an insufficient explanation—if only because parties have access to wealthy candidates who are not linked to criminal activity, from cricket heroes to film stars and industrialists. It is also not immediately clear why voters would prefer a wealthy, “tainted” candidate to an equally wealthy, “clean” alternative.

As the deputy president of the state unit of one major party confided to me back in 2010, candidates with criminal records thrive because they have “currency.” It turns out that this “currency” is also figurative.

While many have suggested that voters in India unwittingly support tainted politicians because they are ignorant about the biographies of their political representatives, there is an affirmative explanation that is consistent with rational, well-informed voters. In contexts where the rule of law is weak and social divisions are highly salient, politicians often use their criminal reputation as a badge of honor—a signal of their credibility to protect the interests of their parochial community and its allies, from physical safety to access to government benefits and social insurance. The “protection” on offer is often grounded in the language of caste or religious empowerment and can be readily justified in defensive terms. One member of Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena party with a reputation as a strongman explained his “hands-on” approach to the scholar Thomas Blom Hansen: “If someone enters my house and runs away with my roti [bread] then what should I do? I have to slap him and take the roti away because it is my roti and not his.”

The appeal of candidates who are willing to do what it takes—by hook or crook—to protect the interests of their community provides some intuition for why the odds of a parliamentary candidate winning an election actually increase with the severity of the charges, with slightly diminishing returns in the most severe instances (see figure 4).

Elections in India have acquired a sort of customary rhythm over the years. Part and parcel of this rhythm is the spate of news headlines before elections about the sordid biographical details of aspirants to higher office. Once voting is completed and the results are announced, a second wave of stories about the criminal antecedents of those who are actually elected pours forth. Recent judicial action is a positive step, but interrupting this rhythm requires deeper institutional change.

The unexpected victory in Delhi of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which campaigned on an avowedly anticorruption platform, is also a positive sign of popular frustration with malfeasance, but it is unlikely to be a game changer. The AAP proved a party could win without heavily resorting to candidates with lengthy rap sheets, but that did not seem deter the party’s rivals. According to the Association for Democratic Reforms, 21 percent of the ruling Congress Party’s candidates and 46 percent of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidates were involved in criminal cases, compared to 7 percent for the AAP.

If the high levels of criminality in politics could be attributed to a lack of information about candidates’ biographies, a public awareness campaign might make a significant dent in criminality rates. Alas, the situation is far more nuanced.

India needs a credible election finance regime with real teeth to rein in under-the-table funding. And the state’s ability to impartially deliver benefits, physical safety, and timely justice has to improve. Unless an investment in institutional change is made, parties—as well as many voters—will continue to view a candidate’s criminal reputation as a potential asset rather than a liability.

By Milan VaishnavCARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

Danielle Smogard provided excellent research assistance for this article.

Pakistan 

Pakistani government to launch security operation against banned groups

As Pakistani military gunships shelled suspected militant hideouts in North Wazirstan on Monday, reports emerged that the federal government is planning to launch a targeted security operation against banned organizations as part of a larger strategy to combat extremism and militancy (Dawn,ET). Pakistani intelligence officials said they believed members of these banned outlets would either flee to Afghanistan or hide in “Pakistan’s settled areas” before the operation began.

While it is unclear what the targeted banned organizations will do, thousands of residents began fleeing North Waziristan on Sunday (ET). According to a local resident named Rafiullah, “up to 13,000 people have left several villages in North Waziristan,” and Pakistani officials confirmed that at least 8,000 people have arrived in Bannu, a neighboring town (RFE/RL). Arshad Khan, the head of Pakistan’s Disaster Management Authority for the Federall Administered Tribal areas, noted that most people were going to Bannu, but added that since “no military operation has been announced… there are no instructions to make arrangements for internally displaced people.”

Six children killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province

Six children — five boys and one girl – all under the age of 10 died in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday when they reportedly played with an explosive device that went off (AP, ET, RFE/RL). Police in the town of Hangu in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province said the children apparently found the device in a field, mistaking it for a ball. The victims were cousins.

In Balochistan, “unidentified miscreants” blew up a natural gas pipeline in the Dera Bugti district late on Sunday evening (Dawn). No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, which follows similar incidents on Jan. 11 and Jan. 20.

Musharraf wins medical exemption

A special anti-terrorism court in Islamabad granted former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf a medical exemption from appearing before the judges on Monday, after reviewing the ex-military leader’s medical records (Dawn). Musharraf had been heading to the court on Thursday, Jan. 2, when he was rushed to the Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology in Rawalpindi with chest pains; he has remained in the hospital ever since. While Musharraf has been granted medical exemptions before, they were often short-term passes; it is unclear if this exemption is a similar temporary measure, or a longer waiver. The trial — one of many pending against the former president — has been adjourned until Feb. 10.

Afghanistan 

Karzai: No BSA without peace talks

Afghan President Hamid Karzai once again refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with Washington — which will determine the size and scope of any U.S. troop presence that remains in the country once the NATO combat mission ends in December — telling reporters on Saturday that Washington needs to first launch a genuine peace process with the Taliban (BBC). He also said that he will not sign the security pact “under pressure,” adding that: “If America wants to stay as an ally with us, it should work with us as an ally not as an opponent” (RFE/RL). As for the prospect of the United States’ pulling out all of its troops currently in Afghanistan — the so-called “zero option” — Karzai said that if peace cannot be achieved, “it’s better for them to leave and our country will find its own way” (AJAM).

The ongoing tensions between the United States and Afghanistan increased further on Monday when Afghan authorities announced that they have ordered the first wave of detainee releases from the Parwan Detention Center at Bagram Airfield (AP, BBC, TOLO News). While the U.S. military has said the detainees — 88 of which may ultimately be released — are “dangerous insurgents who have blood on their hands,” Abdul Shukur Dadras, a member of a government committee reviewing the prisoners’ cases, said at least 37 were to be released in the next two weeks due to a lack of evidence, with reviews of the other 51 cases ongoing (RFE/RL). The United States condemned the move as a “major step backward” for developing the rule of law in Afghanistan (Pajhwok,VOA).

While much of the dispute over the BSA has focused on the impact to Afghanistan, the New York Times noted on Sunday that U.S. intelligence officials are increasingly concerned that they could lose the air bases they use to launch drone strikes in Pakistan (NYT). If President Obama withdraws all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, CIA bases around the country would also have to be closed since they could no longer be protected. The concern is so great that the administration has organized a team of intelligence, military, and policy specialists to devise alternative possibilities, though at the moment, the bases are too far away for drones to reach Pakistan and would be “too distant to monitor and respond as quickly as American forces can today if there were a crisis in the region.”

The Times‘ Matthew Rosenberg also reported that there have been false claims in Afghan accusations over a U.S. air strike that occurred on Jan. 15. According to Rosenberg, a report about the strike “was the kind of dossier that the Taliban often publish, purporting to show the carnage inflicted during a raid by American forces: photographs of shattered houses and bloodied, broken bodies, and video images of anguish at a village funeral, all with gut-churning impact and no proof of authenticity” (NYT). While no one has disputed that civilians died in the strike, the Afghan and NATO counts greatly differ. Having reviewed the dossier – which Afghan officials say was created to justify Karzai’s stalling on the BSA — Rosenberg noted that at least two of the images in the report showed casualty photos that were at least three years old. While the Afghan government called a press conference on Sunday to refute Rosenberg’s first report on the dossier, the villagers it brought to verify the authenticity of the photos identified one that was taken in 2009 (NYT). Rosenberg noted in his second report that: “Aimal Faizi, a spokesman for Karzai, told Agence France-Presse on Sunday that the government was ‘taking this issue very seriously, to find out who put this photograph in the dossier.’”

Attacks continue to rock Afghanistan

A suicide bomber targeting a minivan used by the Afghan army killed at least four people — two soldiers and two civilian bystanders — and wounded 22 others in Kabul on Sunday when he detonated his explosives while trying to board the vehicle (BBC, NYT, Pajhwok,RFE/RL, TOLO News, WSJ). The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, which was followed explosions in Helmand and Nangarhar province that left at least six people killed and more than a dozen wounded (AP, The Hindu).

Attacks against athletes in Afghanistan also continued on Sunday when unidentified gunmen shot and killed two brothers in Takhar province as they headed home from a bodybuilding club in the Chah-i-Aab district (Khaama Press, Pajhwok). No one has claimed responsibility for the killings, and an investigation is underway.

Former paratrooper’s photographs show everyday Afghan lives

Paul Hutchings, a former army paratrooper from Wales and a current private security contractor working in Afghanistan, has taken extraordinary photos of Afghanistan, providing insight into everyday life in the war-torn country (Wales Online). According to Hutchings, who has worked all over Afghanistan, he wanted to offer a view of Afghanistan that isn’t being captured or “portrayed by the mass media.” As such, his pictures include shots of people traveling around town — on the backs of motorcycles and in the trunks of cars — as well photos of people scrounging for food in trashcans, and selling shoes at the local bazaar.

– Bailey Cahall

India

Andhra chief minister may reject Telangana Bill, angers leaders

Kiran Kumar Reddy, the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, has expressed his unhappiness with the central government’s bill to create a new state of Telangana, as it failed to justify reasons to divide Andhra Pradesh for its creation (Indian Express). In a draft of the bill sent to the speaker of the state’s legislative assembly, Reddy says the bill was sent to the assembly “in utter disregard (of) linguistic homogeneity and administrative viability.” Senior Congress leader P. Lakshmiah spoke out against the move, saying Reddy was “interfering with constitutional procedure” and was “undemocratic and irresponsible.” The decision to introduce the bill in the assembly now rests with Speaker N. Manohar who, at Reddy’s behest, could send the bill back to the central government urging it to plug loopholes, which would further delay the creation of the state.

Army closes Pathribal case against Kashmiri officers

The Indian Army has dismissed charges against five soldiers who were accused of rounding up five Kashmiri men, dressing them in fatigues, and then shooting and burning them in 2000, an incident that is widely known as the Pathribal case (NYT). The soldiers said the men were Pakistani militants, but locals and a previous Indian government investigation both suggested the men were innocent civilians who were snatched from their homes. Kashmiri politicians and rights groups expressed outrage at the verdict, calling the decision a huge setback for reconciliation efforts between the Indian government and those seeking Kashmiri independence (Times of India).

AAP leader expelled less than a month after Delhi elections,

Vinod Kumar Binny, a member of Delhi’s Legislative Assembly from the newly formed Aam Admi Party (AAP) has been expelled by the party’s leadership for lashing out against top leaders (Times of India, Indian Express, The Hindu). Binny, who had left the Congress party to join the AAP, held a press conference on Jan. 16 and accused leaders of deviating from the party’s core principles. His remarks were seen as a violation of the party’s code of discipline and he was expelled from the AAP on Sunday. Binny proceeded to go on a hunger strike on Monday, but called it off a few hours later, allegedly on advice from party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s erstwhile associate Anna Hazare. Binny has promised to renew his agitation if a bill to create an anti-corruption ombudsman (the Jan Lokpal bill) is not passed by the assembly in 10 days. Kejriwal responded by saying that Binny’s actions were the result of being rebuffed for ministership and a seat in the national polls.

India, Japan boost ties in state visit

India and Japan signed a series of energy partnerships, infrastructure development pacts, and defense agreements, as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe concluded a state visit to New Delhi this weekend (VOA, WSJ). Defense agreements covered maritime security, India-U.S.-Japan naval exercises, and a civil-nuclear deal, as well as meetings between Indian and Japanese national security advisors on China’s military rise and strategic conflicts in East Asia and the Middle East (Hindustan Times). Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also said that India was discussing the possibility of buying an amphibious aircraft called the US-2 and co-producing it in Japan.

Japanese companies were also invited to help develop a new port in Chennai and construct infrastructure in India’s politically sensitive northeastern region, where Chinese infrastructure projects are discouraged (Economic Times, Times of India). Japan agreed to help advance energy efficiency in telecommunication towers across the country and provide loans to increase power generation in India and assist with the construction of the New Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor project and high-speed rail systems in India (NYT).

The two prime ministers also issued a statement saying that their meeting underscored the importance of freedom of over-flight in accordance with principles of international law, a veiled criticism of China’s air defense zone (Mint). On Monday, China said it hoped that India’s defense ties with Japan would be “conducive” to regional peace and stability (The Hindu).

Afghanistan expecting a lot from India

In an interview with Mint on the sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Regional Business Leaders enclave, Mohammad Shinwari, Afghanistan’s deputy commerce minister, indicated that he expected “a lot from India in terms of political and financial support” (Mint). Shinwari described the hurdles faced by traders in Afghanistan and said he hoped the country could begin importing from India through the India-Pakistan Wagah border. While he acknowledged that Afghanistan would be an aid-based economy in the coming future, he said the government was looking to ramp up investments from India in its resources sector. Shinwari also spoke of deepening military ties between the two nations.

India lifts ban on Airbus A380s

India’s civil aviation ministry lifted a ban on Monday on landings by Airbus A380 planes at the country’s four main airports, clearing the way for the super jumbo jets to service passengers in New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Hyderabad (NDTV, Economic Times, PIB). India had put the ban in place due to concerns that foreign carriers might cut into the business and profits of state-run Air India. International carriers such as Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Lufthansa, and British Airways are expected to benefit from the decision (Mint).

– Shruti Jagirdar and Ana Swanson

By BAILEY CAHALL, SHRUTI JAGIRDAR, ANA SWASON
FOREIGN POLICY

India 

Muzaffarnagar riot victims allege attempts at Lashkar recruitment

The Delhi Police’s Special Cell has claimed it has evidence that Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is attempting to recruit operatives in the riot-hit district of Muzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh (The Hindu, Indian Express). The Delhi police have arrested two men, Mohd Rashid and Mohd Shahid, from Mewat, Haryana after two Muzaffarnagar locals alleged Rashid and Shahid had approached them to discuss carrying out kidnappings and other nefarious activities (NDTV). India’s Intelligence Bureau had been tracking the duo’s movements and alleged that they had visited Muzaffarnagar and its neighboring district, at the behest of LeT leader Abdul Subhan, six times since the riots ended in September 2013. However, India’s Home Ministry is not entirely convinced by the assertions and has asked for more evidence. Spokespeople from the Congress Party have been using the Delhi Police’s move to vindicate Rahul Gandhi’s controversial assertion that members of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency had also begun recruiting in the region after riots ended (Times of India).

The reports of recruitment comes as the Uttar Pradesh government receives flak for its forced closure of relief camps for those displaced by the riots. Four months after riots hit the district, an estimated 15,000 riot victims continue to live in relief camps and fear returning home to face renewed violence. Conditions have been made worse by a wave of cold weather, and an increase in child deaths (NYT, The Hindu, WSJ).

Thousands flee Assam and Nagaland after ethnic clashes

Ethnic violence has also engulfed the northeastern states of Assam and Nagaland, where thousands have begun to flee after clashes between the Karbi and Rengma Naga tribes began late last month. On Dec. 27, a group known as the Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers attacked Rengma villages in the Bokajan area of the Karbi Anglong district and killed six Rengma Nagas. This was followed by retaliatory violence on Jan. 3 when seven Karbis were found dead in Nagaland. Government estimates say 2,000 people have taken shelter in nine relief camps across the Assam-Nagaland border (BBC, NDTV).

Ganguly steps down from human rights post

A.K. Ganguly, a former Supreme Court justice accused of sexual misconduct, resigned on Monday as chairman of the West Bengal Human Rights Commission (AJE, BBC, NYT). Sources said on Tuesday that West Bengal Governor M.K. Narayanan had accepted his resignation (Live Mint, The Hindu, Times of India,). Ganguly has been accused of sexually harassing a law intern, Stella James, in December 2012 — a charge he denies. A committee of three judges appointed by the Supreme Court to look into the allegations found in December 2013 that Ganguly had exhibited “unwelcome behavior” toward the intern, but the court chose to take no action because the judge had retired. Ganguly initially refused to leave his post as human rights chief, but pressure mounted on the former judge to step down after Indian media published the intern’s deposition before the court-appointed panel. The Additional Solicitor General and one of India’s senior most lawyers, Indira Jaising, also spoke out against Ganguly’s continuation as a human rights chief and had previously made the affadavit against Ganguly public (Hindustan Times).

Plea bargaining continues in Khobragade case

Prosecutors have engaged in “hours of discussion in the hope of negotiating in a plea” in the case of Devyani Khobragade, the Indian diplomat whose recent arrest in New York City led to an outcry in India, the U.S. prosecuting attorney said in court papers Monday night (NYT, Post). The U.S. government has “outlined reasonable parameters for a plea that could resolve the case,” but the defendant has not responded, the papers said. A letter sent late Monday by Khobragade’s lawyer to a federal magistrate judge said there had been “significant communications” with prosecutors and other government officials. The letter requested a 30-day extension of the deadline for filing an indictment against Khobragade, which the lawyer indicated is Jan. 13; only the defense can waive the right to be indicted within 30 days of arrest. Several people close to the case said the postponement could ease pressure on the State Department, which is at odds with federal prosecutors over how the arrest was conducted, according to the Washington Post. Khobragade’s arrest and strip search on charges of underpaying her housekeeper have led to furious criticism in India.

Pakistani officials on Monday expressed their support for India in the Khobragade case, saying such treatment should not be meted to any official of another country (NDTV). “[T]he Vienna Convention ought to be respected in letter and spirit by everybody,” Pakistan High Commissioner to India Salman Bashir said from the sidelines of an event in New Delhi. Former Pakistan foreign secretary Shaharyar M. Khan seconded the comments, saying: “This kind of treatment with diplomats should not happen. It is written clearly in the Vienna convention – both for diplomatic and consular conduct.”

Supreme Court orders government to set up independent environment tribunals

The Indian Supreme Court has directed the central government to establish ‘green tribunals’, or independent environmental regulators, in every state by Mar. 31 (Mint, Indian Express). The move is seen as lessening the involvement of the Ministry of Environment, which recently came under fire for delaying mining and construction projects in several states. The decision, issued by Justice A.K. Patnaik, invoked the need for a regulator under the Forest Conservation Act of 1986 to carry out “independent, objective and transparent appraisals” of projects.

India’s bad loans reach record high

Non-performing loans in India have climbed to a record high, data from the central bank show, as growth slows and domestic interest rates rise to curb inflation (WSJ). Non-performing assets at Indian banks reached 4.2 percent of total loans in September 2013, up from 2.4 percent in 2009, according to the bank. Analysts said the ratio could rise to 5.7 percent in the next four months. With domestic interest rates rising to curb inflation just as growth has been slowing, an increasing number of borrowers risk defaulting on loan payments. The pressure on lenders has led the Indian government to inject cash into state-run banks for the past six years.

– Shruti Jagirdar and Ana Swanson

Afghanistan 

Afghanistan to free reportedly dangerous prisoners 

Abdul Shakor Dadras, the head of a review board looking into the cases of prisoners being held at a detention facility at Bagram Airfield, said that Kabul will release 88 prisoners from the prison as planned, despite concerns from Afghan and U.S. officials (Reuters, TOLO News). Speaking to Reuters late on Sunday evening, Dadras said the evidence against the prisoners does not warrant keeping them any longer and they will be released as soon as possible. U.S. officials have argued that about 40 percent of the prisoners were in involved in attacks that killed 57 Afghans and 60 coalition soldiers. The dispute adds to the strain in relations between Afghanistan and the United States, which began deteriorating when Afghan President Hamid Karzai decided not to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA).

While the United States has repeatedly pushed back the deadline for signing the BSA — which will determine the size and scope of any U.S. troop presence in the country after the NATO combat mission ends this December — the White House said on Monday that the deal should be signed “in a matter of weeks if a contingent of U.S. troops is to remain” in the country (Pajhwok, Reuters). Speaking to reporters, White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “Our position continues to be that if we cannot conclude a bilateral security agreement promptly, then we will be forced to initiate planning for a post-2014 future in which there would be no U.S. or NATO troop presence in Afghanistan.” Though Karzai has said the BSA is something for the next Afghan president to consider (elections will be held in April), U.S. observers have noted that may be too far away for President Obama, speculating that he will have to make a decision about U.S. troops by his State of the Union address later this month.

Girl found with suicide vest held by police 

Afghan police detained a 10-year-old girl on Sunday who was wearing a suicide vest and attempted to attack a police outpost in Helmand province (AFP, Reuters). According to Sediq Sediqi, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry, the girl is thought to be the younger sister of a prominent Taliban commander, who encouraged her to attempt the attack (BBC). The girl, known only as Spozhmay, is one of the youngest suicide bombers recorded by the Afghan government (NDTV). She is currently being held in Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital, and an investigation into the incident is underway (RFE/RL).

Pakistan

Musharraf granted two-day exemption 

After reviewing the medical records of former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, a special court hearing a case against him granted the ex-military ruler a two-day exemption from appearing in court and adjourned the hearing until Wednesday (Dawn). The court, led by Justice Faisal Arab, also said that a ruling related to the medical report, potentially extending the exemption while Musharraf is in the hospital, would be announced on Thursday (Post). Musharraf had been heading to the court on Thursday, Jan. 2, when he was rushed to the Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology in Rawalpindi with chest pains. Musharraf’s family is seeking permission for him to leave the country for medical treatment, but many Pakistanis are skeptical about the former president’s health conditions (Post). According to Pakistan’s Express Tribune, the report states that one of Musharraf’s arteries is blocked, one of his shoulders isn’t working properly, he has problems in his left knee and spinal cord, and he is suffering from hypertension (ET).

Prince Saud al Faisal, Saudia Arabia’s foreign minister and the first top Saudi official to visit Pakistan since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took office in June 2013, addressed speculation that his visit to the country was somehow related to Musharraf’s ongoing legal drama (ET). Speaking to reporters during a press conference in Islamabad, Faisal said: “I have not come here for any sort of deal with regards to the former president.” Faisal maintained that his visit is focused on key bilateral, regional, and international issues and that “Saudi Arabia will not interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs.” Some had questioned the timing of Faisal’s visit, thinking it was a sign the Saudis were trying to help Musharraf leave Pakistan.

No one tasked with leading peace talks 

Pervaiz Rashid, Pakistan’s federal information minister, said on Monday that the government has not yet assigned a single person to spearhead peace talks with the Taliban (ET). According to Rashid, Sharif has been leading the process in general and “has requested all religious and political forces to assist him in this regard.” While Rashid declined to comment on arguments beween the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party’s Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman and Maulana Sami-ul Haq over leading the peace process, he said both religious leaders were “extraordinarily important” to the talks.

“They call him Flipper”

A maritime museum in Karachi is hosting a trained beluga whale, dolphin, and sea lion from Russia in “a water show that will be the first of its kind to take place in Pakistan” (ET, RFE/RL). The mammals will perform for about an hour, three times a day, in a specially built pool and stadium that can seat about 2,000 people. Sharif, a trainer from Egypt, said he was honored to be a part of the show and hoped the Pakistanis enjoyed the performances. The show will run for about two months in Karachi before moving on to Lahore and Islamabad, though the times can be extended based on the public’s response. Shows began this week.

– Bailey Cahall 

BY Shruti Jagirdar, Ana Swanson, Bailey Cahall
FOREIGN POLICY

Diplomatic row over arrest of Indian diplomat deepens

The recent arrest of Devyani Khobragade, India’s deputy consul general in New York, has escalated into a major diplomatic conflict, with Indian officials decrying her ill treatment and launching retaliatory measures against U.S. diplomats in India (BBC, Live Mint, Times of India). Khobragade was arrested in New York over visa fraud charges and was subsequently released on a $250,000 bond after pleading not guilty. Prosecutors in New York say that Khobragade claimed she paid her Indian maid $4,500 per month, but actually paid her below the U.S. minimum wage – reportedly $3.31 an hour. Indian media reports complained that Khobragade was handcuffed in public as she was dropping her daughter off at school, strip-searched, subjected to DNA swabbing, and confined with drug addicts until her release. State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf responded by telling reporters that U.S. diplomatic security officials followed standard procedures during Khobragade’s arrest.Harf added that, under the Vienna Convention, the Indian deputy consul general only has immunity from the jurisdiction of U.S. courts with respect to acts performed in the exercise of consular functions. 

In India, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid called the action “completely unacceptable,” and the diplomat’s father, Uttam Khobragade, a retired official of the Maharashtra government, met with Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, the former chief minister of Maharashtra, to ask for help in seeking justice for her. The India government responded on Tuesday by summoning U.S. Ambassador Nancy Powell and downgrading the privileges of U.S. diplomats in the country by withdrawing identity cards that entitle consular officers to diplomatic immunity and airport passes for diplomats and their families. It also stopped import clearances for the embassy, including one for liquor, and removed the traffic barricades outside the U.S. embassy in New Delhi. Senior Indian government leaders, including Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi and Shinde, also refused to meet with a visiting delegation of five U.S. congressmen for a second day. India warned that it may begin examining the salary structures of Indian employees at the U.S. embassy and whether American diplomats are “adhering to the spirit of each Indian law” (The Hindu). Senior BJP leader Yashwant Singha commented on Tuesday that India should retaliate by arresting the same-sex companions of American diplomats, after an Indian Supreme Court verdict restored a ban on gay sex last week (NDTV). 

Anti-corruption Lokpal Bill passed 

The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill 2011 was passed, with amendments, by India’s Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) on Tuesday afternoon, nearly two years after it was first introduced (NDTV). The bill will now return to the Lok Sabha (lower house) for a final discussion and, if passed, will become law. If enacted, the bill will create extrajudicial bodies within states called ‘Lokpal’ and ‘Lokayuktas’ that will investigate cases of corruption against certain public servants (PRS India Bill Brief). The Samajwadi Party, which has publicly expressed its disapproval of the bill, walked out of the house ahead of the debate (Times of India). The opposition BJP, which enjoys a majority in the upper house, expressed its support for the bill and insisted on the formation of Lokayuktas in every state. Congress Party sources that spoke to NDTV have credited Vice President Rahul Gandhi with pushing for the bill’s passage ahead of May’s national elections. Anna Hazare, the anti-corruption activist who recently renewed his campaign urging the government to pass the bill, continued his hunger strike on Tuesday and vowed to refuse food until the law was enacted.

Singapore to deport 52 Indians after worst riots in 40 years 

Singapore is set to deport 52 Indian citizens and has issued warnings to 200 others for their involvement in riots earlier this month in the country’s Little India precinct (Times of India, WSJ, VOA). Clashes between police and a crowd of 400 foreign workers erupted on Dec. 8 after an Indian worker died in a traffic accident. Thirty-five people were charged with inciting riots after several vehicles were set ablaze (Straits Times). A ban on alcohol was enforced in the region last weekend to relieve tensions and a shuttle service for foreign workers living in the area has been suspended. The case has brough heavy scrutiny to Singapore’s treatment of its migrant worker population. Foreign nationals comprise 20% of Singapore’s population. 

Land acquisition act to come into force in January

India’s new Land Acquisition law will go into effect on January 1, 2014, the Economic Times reported on Monday (Economic Times). Titled “The Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act 2013,” the law compensates private landowners with up to four times the market value of land in rural areas and requires the approval of 80 percent of the residents on the land before plots can be acquired by a private company. All residents will also need to be resettled before the land is acquired. The act replaces India’s 119-year-old law on land acquisition and was passed by parliament on Aug. 27 during its monsoon session.

– Shruti Jagirdar and Ana Swanson 

Mission accomplished? 

British Prime Minister David Cameron visited the country’s troops in Afghanistan on Monday and boldly declared that their mission will have been accomplished by the time they withdraw at the end of next year (Pajhwok, Telegraph). Speaking at Camp Bastion in Helmand province, Cameron acknowledged that: “we will not leave behind a perfect country or a perfect democracy,” but said the troops “can come home with their heads held high” (Guardian). Most media reports about Cameron’s comments — which were in response to a reporter’s question — linked them to former U.S. President George W. Bush’s 2003 speech about victory in the Iraq war, which was made under a banner declaring “Mission Accomplished” and was followed by years of insurgency in the country. Bonus read: “What kind of Afghanistan will foreign forces leave?” (BBC).

Cameron also reaffirmed Great Britain’s long-term commitment to Afghanistan, saying that while there will be no combat troops in the country after 2014, “We are going to go on funding the Afghan National Army and police into the future” (AFP, BBC). The British prime minister also mentioned the officer training academy — known as “Sandhurst in the Sand” – the country is managing to help develop the Afghan security forces’ officer corps. Around 5,200 British troops are still serving in Afghanistan.

Cameron “confident” BSA will be signed 

During his pre-Christmas visit to British troops, Cameron waded into the debate over the stalled Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States, saying that signing the pact is in the interest of Afghanistan, NATO, and the United States (Pajhwok, RFE/RL). He also said that he is “confident the Kabul-Washington bilateral accord will be signed,” though he did not provide any further information about the source of his confidence. Cameron noted that the signing, or lack thereof, of the BSA would not affect Britain’s withdrawal timetable, but argued it would help the military alliance properly plan for a post-2014 mission.

Cameron’s comments came as Pir Syed Ahmad Gilani, a former jihadi commander and Mahaz-i-Millie-I-Islami party leader, said signing the BSA sooner rather than later is in Afghanistan’s national interest (Pajhwok). Speaking to Pajhwok Afghan News, Gilani linked the signing of the BSA to “cooperation from the international community” during next April’s presidential and provincial elections. He also urged the Afghan Taliban to take part in the reconciliation process, stressing the need for direct talks between the Afghan government and the militant organization.

Peace talks top priority 

Pakistan’s new National Security Committee held its inaugural meeting in Islamabad on Tuesday and declared that conducting peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban were the group’s top priority (ET). Chaired by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the meeting focused on creating a national security strategy, increasing the country’s internal security, and enhancing Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan. According to Pakistan’s Express Tribune, the committee agreed that the country’s economic development is dependent on ensuring greater security and approved a number of measures designed to strengthen border security and develop the country’s tribal regions. The committee also agreed to help Afghanistan with the stalled peace talks with its own Taliban faction. Bonus read: “Despite Tensions, Some Signs of Progress in Afghan-Pakistan Relations,” Ayuz Gul (VOA). 

Militants attack NATO fuel tanker

Pakistani gunmen opened fire on a tanker truck carrying fuel to U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan on Tuesday, causing the truck to catch fire; no casualties were reported (Dawn, ET). With the Torkham Gate border crossing in Khyber Paktunkhwa province closed due to protests organized by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf party against U.S. drone strikes, trucks carrying supplies to forces aligned with the military alliance have had to pass through Balochistan, where they have been repeatedly targeted by militants. No one claimed responsibility for the attack, which occurred in the province’s Khuzdar district.

Earlier on Tuesday, at least two people were killed and four were injured in Pakistan’s Kurram tribal region when the vehicle they were traveling in struck a landmine (Dawn, ET). While no one has claimed responsibility for the attack in Parachinar, the agency’s capital city, Kurram is one of the country’s seven semi-autonomous tribal areas and has a history of sectarian clashes.

Hungry, hungry pilot

Captain Noushad, a picky airline pilot, delayed a Pakistan International Airlines’ flight heading from Lahore to New York City for about two-and-a-half hours on Saturday when he learned the catering crew couldn’t provide him with sandwiches (The Nation). According to Pakistan’s The Nation, while the flight did include “peanuts, chips, and biscuits,” Noushad insisted on sandwiches, which could only be ordered from a nearby five-star hotel. While he eventually received the requested sandwiches, it is unclear what kind they were. Hopefully they were good.

– Bailey Cahall

By Shruti Jagirdar, Ana Swanson, Bailey Cahall
FOREIGN POLICY