SPY EYES

A new Syrian peace plan appears likely to go nowhere after it was rejected by both sides and
watered down due to differences between the United States and Russia. While there were reports that Moscow’s policies at the conference indicated some softening of its support for the Assad regime, the peace plan could actually make the Syrian crisis worse, at least in the short
term.

UN-Arab League Syria peace envoy Kofi Annan convened a conference in Geneva, Switzerland on June 30 in response to the spiraling violence in Syria and to salvage his failed peace plan. The conference issued a vague communiqué in which the attendees agreed to push Syrian parties toward a transitional government.

However, the communiqué failed to call for Assad to step down or stipulate whether he would be excluded from a transition process. U.S. and Russian representatives expressed strong disagreement over this point, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claiming the conference agreement included no demand for Assad to step down while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the meeting’s outcome meant, “Assad will still have to go.” Background An estimated 14,000 have been killed in Syria since the uprising began 17 months ago.

The Syrian opposition says 174 were killed on June 30, including 85 whom they say were killed by government forces while attending a funeral in Damascus. The violence appears to be growing worse as the Syrian rebels become a better armed and more effective guerrilla force and the government turns to using heavier weapons, including attack helicopters.

Convening the Geneva conference was difficult for Annan because of stark disagreements over whom to invite. Representatives from Russia, China, the UK, France, Turkey, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq attended the conference along with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Arab League Secretary General Nabil El-Araby. Annan and Russia pressed hard for the inclusion of Iran, a close ally of Assad, at the conference. This was rejected by the West, especially by the United States, due to Iran’s stalwart support of the government crackdown in Syria which reportedly has included the use of Iranian snipers.

Saudi Arabia was excluded as a compromise to Russia because of statements by Saudi officials calling for arming the Syrian rebels and reports that the Saudis are quietly providing the rebels with arms. The conference participants agreed to press the Syrian rebels and the Assad regime to support a new diplomatic effort led by Annan to implement a cease-fire. They also agreed that a transitional government be established in Syria “by mutual consent.” It is unclear how this can occur after the failure of the last peace plan that was supposed to lead to a cease-fire in April.
United States Out-Maneuvered by Russia Russia out-maneuvered the United States at the conference on the role of Assad in a transitional government and whether he should step down. The United States and its allies tried to push for a provision that would bar anyone from a transitional government “whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation” in Syria, language clearly intended to exclude Assad from a transitional government. After Russia threatened to block an agreement if this language was included in the communiqué, the United States dropped the language.

Secretary of State Clinton dismissed the significance of this concession and claimed the conference
was a step forward since Russia finally agreed to back a process for a political transition in Syria.
French and British officials took a similar position and tried to spin the results of the conference as
mandating Assad’s removal from power.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, however, portrayed the conference outcome as a major victory for Russian Syria policy and claimed that the success of the new peace plan depends on the Syrian rebels laying down their arms and Western and Arab states ceasing their military and financial support of the rebels.

The Assad regime did not officially comment on the conference outcome but Syrian state-controlled TV interpreted it as a victory for the regime. Syrian opposition members called the conference’s final communiqué “irrelevant” and denounced it for leaving open the possibility of Assad remaining in power and for buying the Assad regime more time to continue the crackdown.
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group operating outside of Syria, plans to hold a twoday conference in Cairo starting today to discuss a political transition. Syrian rebel groups engaged in an armed struggle with the regime inside Syria announced that they are boycotting the Cairo talks because they reject the outcome of the Geneva meeting over its failure to endorse an international military intervention. The rebels also referred to the talks as a Russian-Iranian conspiracy.

Did Russia Help Syria Shoot Down a Turkish Jet? The Geneva conference opened in the wake of the most serious international incident related to the Syrian crisis when an unarmed Turkish F4 Phantom Air Force jet was shot down on June 22 by Syria.

NATO pledged its support for Turkey at an emergency meeting convened in response to this incident last week and Turkey moved military units to its border with Syria and warned Syrian forces to stay away from the border.

Turkey sent six F-16 fighter jets to the Syrian border yesterday after a Syrian helicopter approached the border, according to the BBC. Heightened tensions with Russia over its continued support of Assad are likely to grow worse this week over a press report that Russia played a role in Syria’s shooting down of the Turkish jet. The Sunday Times of London reported yesterday that Russia sold the missiles to Syria and Russian technicians helped train the Syrian army in their use. The paper reported that Russian technicians may be helping Syria operate the missiles and quoted an Israeli air force source who alleged Russian involvement in the shoot-down of the Turkish jet who said “We would not be surprised if these Russian experts, if they didn’t push the button, at least were beside the Syrian officers who did it.”

The Sunday Times also reported that Russia may have helped Syria fire on the Turkish jet to send a
message to NATO to not intervene militarily in the Syrian conflict.
Analysis
While some observers read Russia’s willingness to consider a transitional Syrian
government a small but significant step toward finding a solution to the Syrian crisis,
the conference accomplished far less than Annan and Western had hoped for.
Moreover, since Syrian parties view the outcome as a victory for Assad, it could cause
their positions to harden and the level of violence to increase.

Russia’s position on a transitional government could end up being a breakthrough, but
there are no signs that Moscow plans to push Assad to accept this idea. Instead, Russia
wants the Syrian opposition to make the first move by laying down its arms.
LIGNET believes it is very unlikely that press reports of Russia playing a role in the
downing of the Turkish jet are accurate because this would be a serious provocation
that would damage Russian security and economic interests on other fronts. LIGNET
believes that Moscow probably has counseled Syria to not engage in any more such
attacks. This story may be a press leak meant to pressure Moscow to cease its military
support of Syria.

Conclusion

The recent Syria conference in Geneva may have made some small steps toward
resolving the Syrian crisis by gaining support in theory for a transitional government;
but overall it was a flop that may set back peace efforts and cause the violence to
increase. By making concessions to Russia that seem to allow Assad to remain in
power, the United States violated an adage that all good negotiators know well:
Sometimes no agreement is better than a bad agreement.

The Lignet