SPY EYES

The combination of a new government in France and intense political turmoil seen in the African Maghreb over the last year and a half has prompted Paris to attempt a fresh start in its relations with its French-speaking friends across the Mediterranean. But as the former colonial ruler, France may not be in the best position to offer the Moors the kind of friendship they really need.

The violence in Mali has recently become a particular concern to France and its Maghreb allies as it is feared that the jihadist revolution that has taken place there this year could spill over into Algeria. France is also keen to start off on good terms with the new post-Arab Spring government in Tunisia.

Background

The Maghreb is usually considered the North African countries of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The “Grand Maghreb” is considered these countries plus Libya and Mauritania.

As the former colonial power, France has particularly strong ties to the Maghreb countries, culturally and demographically. Millions of Moroccans, Algerians and Tunisians reside in France, but these countries also host tens of thousands of French expatriates. As a result, France’s economic and political interests are intertwined with these countries. Not only are they the biggest beneficiaries of French foreign aid, but trade between France and the Maghreb amounts to more than 10 billion euros. With France controlling a large share of the markets of all three countries, its economic leverage with them is considerable.

Following the political shift to the left in the Elysée Palace on May 15, new Socialist president Francois Hollande is now launching a wide-ranging diplomatic effort to rebuild traditionally strong ties to francophone West Africa and to the Maghreb countries in particular. Such a restart is deemed necessary after alleged foreign policy blunders by the foreign minister of the Sarkozy government, Michele Alliot-Marie, who was forced to resign after ties to Tunisia’s Ben Ali regime were exposed during the Arab Spring uprisings last year. Moreover, both the Chirac and Sarkozy governments tried to foster tight cooperation with the Tunisian despot.

During a visit to Paris last week, Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki spoke to the French National Assembly and presented post-Arab Spring Tunisia in a democratic light, as opposed to an Islamic one. Later, he spoke of how “the page has been turned” in French-Tunisian relations, marking a new beginning.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius made a trip to Algeria on July 16, his first official visit to an Arab country. Meeting with President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, he aimed “to inject new momentum to relations between our two countries,” according to the news service AFP.

Similarly, French Development Minister Pascal Canfin traveled to Morocco on July 19 to reiterate France’s long-standing position on the issue of Western Sahara. France supports Morocco’s aim to make Western Sahara a semi-independent part of Morocco and not an independent state.

As the gateway to Europe for Maghreb citizens, France is particularly concerned with Islamist radicalization and trends of terrorism in the area. At the top of the agenda for Foreign Minister Fabius when visiting Algeria was the situation in Mali, which borders Algeria to the south. Ethnic Tuaregs and a radical Islamist group known as Ansar Dine took control of northern Mali in late March and declared the region an independent state. Ansar Dine has been destroying Islamic cultural sites in northern Mali and carried out a suicide bombing in southern Algeria last month.

Hollande has made clear that he intends to “show solidarity” with Maghreb countries and the fifteen member ECOWAS group (Economic Community of West African States) as they decide how to deal with the Mali situation. All ECOWAS countries, with the exception of Algeria, favor military intervention in Mali. French officials have said their country will not lead a military intervention into Mali because France’s colonial past would cause complications, but believe a military intervention is “probable.” Algeria opposes a military intervention in Mali and favors using diplomacy.

Analysis

Unless carefully handled, France’s foreign policy could easily be seen as two-faced by Maghreb governments and their people as attempts are made to improve cooperation both with old autocrats and the new Islamists in Tunisia. France’s diplomatic work will therefore be both broad and careful as each of the three countries has its own contentious issues.

When it comes to trade, French investment and aid also could stifle the endemic youth unemployment that remains high throughout the Maghreb and could have destabilizing effects.

For now, France’s priority appears to be to consolidate the post-revolutionary situation in Tunisia and maintain stability in its immediate periphery in the Maghreb.

If outside intervention is pursued in Mali, Algerian participation will be crucial since ECOWAS could not manage the task without Algerian troops. However, although France says it only want to play a supporting role in such an operation, given its close ties to Mali and the Maghreb states, such a supporting role will probably be very robust and include transport aircraft, arms, training, and intelligence support.

Conclusion

Concerns about French citizens living in the Maghreb, worrying trends of Islamist radicalization in West Africa, and the uncertainty of a new Islamist government in Tunisia all combine to make improved and more coordinated Maghreb relations a key foreign policy objective for the new French government. Hollande’s greatest challenge will be to maintain credibility in the region while cooperating with both new politicians who have come to power through the Arab Spring and old guard autocrats such as Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

LIGNET