SPY EYES

With the US poised to pull out of Afghanistan in 2014, Pakistan will be left to face the terrorism problem alone for the most part. Leaving a small residual force to train the Afghans and a smaller counter-terrorism force of special operations to fight against al-Qaeda after the legal mandate of the American forces ends, the US will have set a new equation quite effectively. As for now, the impasse in the US-Afghan negotiations on a bilateral security agreement is increasing Washington’s frustration and bringing it closer to exercising a ‘zero option’ for real. Mr. Obama will be reminded of the time when he hammered away at Republican rival Mitt Romney on the issue last year, saying that the latter had no timetable for bringing the troops home from America’s longest war. Since his credibility has already been eroded by the broken promise of Obamacare, he may feel pressured to live up to his word. The effects of such an extreme measure on Pakistan will be immediate and crippling: more suicide bombings and instability as the emboldened and triumphant Taliban hungry to avenge Hakimullah Mehsud’s killing and no longer pressed by coalition forces in Afghanistan, turn their sights on Islamabad.

Nothing puts the country in a more miserable position than the way the leadership is bending over backwards to engage the Taliban in peace talks. With its groveling and pleading, it has provided legitimacy and representation to a group that is adamant on inflicting wide-scale destruction. To add fuel to the fire, a toxic pro-TTP narrative is being promoted vigorously. Up north, in KPK, the PTI has vowed to block NATO routes.

One wonders how the provincial government aims to achieve that given that it does not have security and foreign policy in its portfolio and what repercussions this will have on national solidarity. At a time when the government is paralyzed by confusion and fear and is struggling to muster up the will to take a stance and frame a policy, the politics of agitation that may have served the PTI well in the pre-election days, will stir a lethal brew for Pakistan now. The time for such a move is most inopportune: with the dwindling economy and the deteriorating law and order situation, the country might not pass another test for resilience. On the international level as well, agitation has never helped achieve desired objectives: not too long ago, the routes were blocked after 24 of Pakistan’s soldiers were martyred in Salala.  An unwilling and half-hearted apology from the US came on July 3, 2012- routes were open again and things were back to square one.

A temporary blockade will most likely not have a policy-changing impact, especially when US has made a landmark achievement by eliminating Mehsud. At home, Mehsud was declared a ‘martyr’ by the JUI. Suddenly, the deceased terrorist leader had a human side to him and much information was shared about his generosity, and good sense of humor. The Taliban, perhaps not entirely in vain, attributed their loss to the complicity of the Pakistani government in the drone program. In the given context, PTI’s move to block NATO routes is more about domestic politics than a breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Little will be achieved out of creating national discord at a critical juncture in history- energies should instead  be focused on figuring out a strategy to help guide actions and gaining what Pakistan can out of the limited time that the US has troops on the ground in Afghanistan. Instead, one can see local politics taking precedence as the opposition and government remain fixated on making personal gains and playing it safe. The smell of fear is real and in very much in the air. Pakistanis are watching unamused as the hypocrisy of the leadership is unfolding: they know for a fact now that in the grand scheme of things, they can trust neither the Pakistani nor the American government but only the Taliban to live up to their promises.

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS
By Enum Naseer