Three weeks ago Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif shook hands with Obama, Manmohan Singh, and other leaders of the World at the United Nations General Assembly Summit. The timing of this meeting could not have been at a more crucial stage for the newly elected government, occupied with internal economic and security challenges, forming policies, setting objectives, hoping to forge sustainable alliances. What will Sharif press forward this year, reaping his third opportunity at the Prime seat? We want to talk about drones, the Taliban, Kashmir, our economic crises; we want good ties with India but we will not let go of the past grievances. Kashmir needs to be addressed: stressed our Prime Minister.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif shook hands in New York, 29 September 2013, and agreed to find effective means to restore the ceasefire on the Line of Control. Both representatives expressed their concerns. Manmohan wanted the Mumbai attacks perpetrators brought to justice, Sharif agreed. A set of preconditions to a meeting in the future was conveyed to his Pakistani counterpart. But given the new rise of Modi, anti-Pakistan rhetoric in mainstream Indian media, and a foreign policy attacking Pakistan’s intentions towards her neighbor, Singh even went against his own party’s wishes to make this contact in New York.
Manmohan might not be so powerful anymore. Little support from his party and an aggressive BJP, summed with an anti Pakistan sentiment fueled by small border disturbances and the blame game, it is obvious that Pakistan and India have experienced patches greener than this. Back home as the Peshawar church bomb blasts, the day before PM Sharif was to address the Nations of the World, claimed around 81 lives, it would have made sense to observe a moment of silence and spend more time on our massive security concerns perhaps. Or to grieve the mistakes and shortfalls in safeguarding the very basic rights a human being, by virtue of being alive, is entitled to.
The previous government spent its tenure criticizing the US unilateral policies, the infringement upon our sovereignty. Drone attacks, from a local phenomenon escalated to an issue of international importance. But while Hinna Rabbani Khar spoke with flair and charm in front of cameras, her passion seemed to freeze, turn to ice as she sat in the United Nations Security Council for two years, without speaking a word. While rallies, protests and documentaries press upon this issue, unless the establishment, the representatives, choose to utilize their voices, and to raise their concerns on international forums, it is highly unlikely to move forward.
The grievances of the previous government have been passed on, and need to be addressed. When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif represents his nation at the United Nations platform, should he be asking for trade or aid? Should he be mourning the injustice and lack of control prevalent in his country today, or should he be talking about a way forward? These questions are tricky, and why can’t Pakistan do both? It is no secret that we need help. Our neighbors look at us with suspicion, while we take the brunt of a war for the 33rd year in a row. Millions of refugees burden the economy; illegal trade routes through India, Iran and Afghanistan threaten security and make us more vulnerable.
As if security concerns hadn’t already hit the ceiling, our energy shortage has reached the crisis situation since 2007. As a result textile and other industries, very efficient on their own, are losing business worth US$ 1 billion each year to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, because they just cannot produce without gas and electricity. We need to be able to provide our industry with fuel to improve our Balance of Trade and pump money into the system; before there is barely any Capital left in Pakistan. So when Nawaz Shairf says we need ‘Trade not Aid’ his words perhaps resonate well with the masses, who haven’t seen dollars pumping bringing any long term benefits. Aid remains at the disposal of the few, to decide where spending can bring immediate results.
Today the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Vladimir Putin, Russian President, in Moscow. His trip has strengthened their understanding, and together they aim to fight terrorism, and other threats both countries face in the future. There is a hot debate currently trending in India: whether these statements from Putin were an indirect warning to Pakistan. For now nothing can be said for sure. Singh’s next stop is Beijing. After restricted talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, and delegation level talks, both overseeing the inking of a slew of agreements; a meeting for India-China CEOs Forum is planned followed by a lunch banquet hosted by Premier Li. The main theme between India and China is business, boosting trade and fueling their individual economies. Simultaneously a mutual aerial defense pact between Russia and Iran is underway.
On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif’s destination remains the West. Yesterday John Kerry and the Premier focused on “strengthening Pak-US ties”. Ties for what: security, mutual defense, trade, better border management, joint exercises to build trust between on the Pak-Afghan border, or a nuclear deal to help Pakistan overcome the energy crisis and come to par with India next door? We don’t know yet. But like most of Pakistan’s interactions with foreign state representatives, this too sounds less goal-oriented. Sharif stressed on trade more than sovereignty issues. While that strategy can be deemed more dignified, it is hardly effective when all of Pakistan celebrates possible resumption of $1.6 billion aid, previously blocked due to trust issues. So while Asian nations build alliances based on tangible goals, and mutual assistance, it seems like Pakistan is hoping to be taken under a powerful wing.
TACSTRAT ANALYSIS
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