SPY EYES

MQM’s Altaf Bhai is walking on a tightrope and he is managing this delicate task with political skill one would not have expected from the loud,often eccentric,politician. How does one plan a long march against the very government they have a coalition with,and at the same time assure them that there shall be no parting of ways? Apparently,MQM can.

It is easy to see MQM’s game in the entire Tahir ul Qadri saga. Here is a political party largely unpopular in most quarters of Pakistan,securing its constituency via dirty tactics that has caused its leader to flee the country. Often the butt of political jokes,MQM is not a force one takes seriously in national politics unless Karachi is specifically analyzed. This has changed with the new love affair between Qadri and Altaf. While Qadri’s agenda might be questionable,MQM’s agenda is not. Hop on the bandwagon,take a long march to Islamabad and try to get some leverage and position in the interim government negotiations. If that fails,hey,there is still a coalition with the country’s largest political party to fall back on.

Qadri,on the other hand,is not so easy to read. There have been so many conspiracy theories going around that it is hard to keep track,and much harder to understand this sudden jolt to our political system. Some say it is a Saudi conspiracy. Others say it is conspiracy by the United States. Others,still,allege that it is the hidden hand of the establishment in manipulating the flailing democracy of Pakistan.

Whatever it is,Qadri is a game changer. Despite a very good advice by Altaf bhai to Rehman Malik to talk to the Qadri himself,no political party has made direct contact with the controversial figure. PML-N and PPP,like two estranged lovers finally reuniting,passed a resolution the Punjab Assembly condemning Qadri’s threat of a long march. Similarly,there is a petition in the Lahore High Court demanding the courts to ban Qadri from proceeding with the long march.

Qadri himself has claimed that he will lead a march of around 300,000 people to Islamabad. A long march at such a scale means arranging transport and gathering supporters. Qadri claims he has gone even beyond that. Apparently,he has arranged for blankets and dry rations people who will camp at Islamabad in this winter of 2013 until Qadri’s demands are met – whatever they may be. That puts to question the massive funds Qadri has at his disposal to arrange such an activity. He keeps saying it is group of followers who have donated to his cause. But one cannot help but be skeptical to that.

One thing that must be pointed out is that this call by the Qadri and Altaf Hussain to lead a long march to Islamabad is not a revolution. It is political bullying,especially because it comes at a time when the interim government is about to be announced. Revolutions are a complete upheaval of the system. What Qadri is calling for,or what he is perceived to be calling for,is a technocratic interim set up.

That problem with that is the fact that a technocratic government is not a democratic government. Yes,we do have recycled faces representing our people. But as recycled as they may be,they are elected representatives of the people. In his eagerness to uphold the constitution,Qadri is forgetting that it may just end up alienating it,by inviting a group of technocrats to run the Pakistani government.

There is no question that Qadri means business,and Altaf Hussain is just tagging along for the ride. Together,they have managed to shake up the senate and the cabinet,both of whom have insisted that it is not the establishment that is behind his untimely return. What remains to be seen is what the repercussions of his long march will have on Pakistan and how it will reflect internationally.

If it goes smoothly,it would be the first democratic transition in Pakistan. It has met a lot of bumps on the road and the biggest one yet is Qadri’s impending long march. The army may not be coming in,but what remains to be seen is whatever form of government that does come in,how effective will it be in carrying Pakistan forward.

By Maryam Rehman