SPY EYES

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Barely a year after fears of a possible military coup plunged Pakistani politics into chaos, the country is in crisis again — this time besieged on multiple fronts by forces that threaten the civilian government just a few months ahead of elections.

An enigmatic preacher is camped before the gates of Parliament with thousands of followers, demanding the government’s immediate ouster. The top court on Tuesday suddenly ordered the arrest of the prime minister. Violence is surging, with militants stepping up deadly attacks against both government forces and religious minorities. And relations with India have dipped, after ill-tempered border skirmishes in which soldiers on both sides were killed.

As it is all unfolding, the country’s powerful military command, long at odds with the government of PresidentAsif Ali Zardari, is in sphinx mode. The army chief, Gen.Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, and his commanders have maintained a cool distance from the unfolding political chaos, their silence stoking speculation about whether the military’s days of political intervention are really, as it claims, over.

“It’s the silence of the legions that is unnerving,” said Ayaz Amir, an opposition member of Parliament.

More than anything else, there is a sense that gears are again shifting in Pakistan, in a direction few dare to predict — bad news for Mr. Zardari’s government, of course, but also potentially for American interests, which see stability in Pakistan as crucial to a smooth withdrawal in Afghanistan next year, as well as a guarantor of the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

“There’s a sense that things are snowballing — hard to predict in any way,” said Cyril Almeida, a senior writer at Dawn newspaper.

The chief catalyst of this jolting change comes in the form of a 61-year-old preacher, Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri, who catapulted himself into the political limelight less than a month ago, and now finds himself issuing ultimatums to Mr. Zardari from inside a bulletproof container within view of the soaring presidential residence.

A giant rally in Lahore last month signaled the start of Mr. Qadri’s assault on Pakistan’s political classes, which he derides as incompetent and irredeemably corrupt — a resonant message in a country of high unemployment and crippling electricity shortages. He drove home his message with an intensive television advertising campaign, paid for with generous amounts of money, the origins of which he has not fully explained.

On Monday evening, he stepped up the attack, leading tens of thousands of followers into the heart of Islamabad, where he renewed demands that Mr. Zardari resign immediately. The crowd fell short of the promised “million-man march,” but was enough to spook the government: by Tuesday morning, he had pushed forward to a square in front of the Parliament.

“There is no Parliament; there is a group of looters, thieves and dacoits” — bandits — he said in a thundering voice, pointing to the building behind him. “Our lawmakers are the lawbreakers.”

The dramatic climax of that speech, however, came not from the preacher himself, but from the marble-walled Supreme Court about 200 yards up the street.

As Mr. Qadri spoke, news broke that Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had issued an order for the arrest of the prime minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf. The report visibly thrilled the crowd, prompting loud cheers and a sense that the promised “revolution” was going their way.

It was a typical surprise maneuver from Chief Justice Chaudhry, a mercurial judge with a stubborn streak who, over the past year, has carved out an influential space through aggressive judicial action. A bruising court battle with Mr. Zardari claimed the career of the previous prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, who was forced to resign in June; the chief justice has also called senior generals to account for human rights abuses and election-rigging efforts stretching back two decades.

The move against Mr. Ashraf was not entirely unexpected; a corruption case against him, related to his three-year stint as minister for water and power, has been pending for more than a year. But its timing was striking.

Speculation that the judge and the preacher acted in concert, perhaps with the backing of powerful generals, has electrified the political firmament. Mr. Qadri, in his speech, impatiently dismissed such a notion: his support came from God, the Prophet Muhammad and the 180 million people of Pakistan, he said.

And in the nearby garrison city of Rawalpindi, the generals, led by General Kayani, watched and waited. Rumors that they are manipulating events from behind the scene are unproved. But, equally, they have done nothing to help the Zardari government.

While Pakistani military rulers once purged their disdain for civilian rule through bloodless coups, the latest breed of generals has chafed under new constraints — the military’s damaged popularity after the humiliating American commando raid in May 2011 that killed Osama bin Laden, sharp scrutiny from an emboldened media, and judicial challenges from Chief Justice Chaudhry’s court.

General Kayani, in particular, has stressed that the military’s role in politics is over. But senior generals continue to wield heavy influence behind the scenes — foreign policy is effectively the army’s domain — and contempt for Mr. Zardari’s governance is palpable in military circles.

But the opposition challenger Nawaz Sharif, who was himself deposed as prime minister by Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999, is not much more appealing to the generals. And so there is continuing uncertainty about the military’s commitment to allowing elections to take place within the next four months, as scheduled.

The drawing rooms of the political elite have been humming with speculation of a “soft coup” — the imposition of a technocratic government, backed by the generals — for several years. But for now, the army seems content simply to watch as Mr. Qadri takes his “people’s revolution” to the streets of Islamabad, where he has promised an uprising along the lines of the Egyptian revolt in Tahrir Square.

“The government is twisting in the wind, and they are just watching it happen,” said Mr. Amir, the opposition politician.

The difference with Egypt, of course, is that Pakistan has no dictator to overthrow. And while Mr. Zardari’s government has faced criticism as having governed poorly in many respects, it has made considerable strides in anchoring the country’s democratic structures.

Through a series of constitutional amendments, all of them approved by the opposition, Mr. Zardari has gradually devolved power to the provinces, reduced his presidential powers and made the electoral process more transparent. Now, advisers say, he is intent on completing the government’s term in March — the first time in Pakistan’s history that a civilian government would have seen out its five-year term.

But first that government must make it through the coming days.

The law minister, Farooq Naek, said Tuesday that he would challenge the arrest order against Mr. Ashraf in court on Thursday. But the most potent test could come from Mr. Qadri, whose supporters were bedding down in neat rows of tents in Islamabad on Tuesday night, waiting for the next speech from their leader on Wednesday morning.

Having shut down the center of Islamabad, and dominated the news cycle, Mr. Qadri is unlikely to surrender the limelight easily. His well-organized supporters insist they will not budge until their demands are met, and are encouraging other Pakistanis to join them.

If that happens, the government may have little option but to break up the protest by force. And it would be at that point that the army, sitting quietly on the fence, would be most likely to step in.

Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad.

By DECLAN WALSH
SPEARHEAD RESEARCH