SPY EYES

Afghan war is the longest large scale war, which has caused immense devastation in the poor country. US Administrations led by Presidents George W Bush and Barrack Obama do not know how to bring an end to this costly war. The end to the Afghan war is nowhere near. This war was essential to end terrorism, but the prolonged conflict has surprised the world. While the US may not be stuck in a quicksand, it is caught in a long war, whose end is distant and unknown.

An understanding of post-NATO Afghanistan requires knowledge of the status of NATO forces, capabilities of the Afghan National Army, the Afghan Air Force, and nature of the terrain and the insurgents.

Presently NATO forces in Afghanistan number about 147000 troops. Its important elements comprise 90000 US, 9500 British, 4700 German, 3600 French, 1900 Turkish troops. President Barrack Obama has announced the withdrawal of 22000 US troops during the current year. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has stated that US troops will stop fighting next year -2013 and will move into the advisory role. British Defense Minister said that the 9500 British troops will be redeployed in “ similar withdrawal scenario. Their return will depend on the security scenario, and according to the security situation, in a manner to be able to take action during 2014 if necessary”. He was careful and more calculated than Leon Panetta, whose withdrawal program in mid 2013 is unreal for many reasons. President Obama’s and Secretary Panetta’s statements are politically motivated. In the election year ground realities in Afghanistan are being ignored to justify Presidents election promises.

German Bubdeswehr forces in Afghanistan number 4700. Thomas de Maiziere the German Defense Minister does not believe in the validity of the American and French troop withdrawal plans for an early troop pullout. “The ISAF mandate runs till the end of 2014; till 31 December 2014. Nothing has changed in that, and on January 01- 2015, the Bundeswehr will move from the driving seat to the passenger seat”. This implies that German troops will be in Afghanistan in 2015.

France has 3600 troops in Afghanistan, only two percent of the ISAF forces strength . In January 2012 French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced withdrawal of the French troops by the end of 2013, after four French soldiers were killed in a Taliban ambush. Sarkozy’s is fighting his election for Presidency, and the French voters want to hear that.

Danish General Knud Bartel, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee and NATO’s most senior military officer demanded a concrete timetable for troop withdrawal. He desires disagreement between NATO states be resolved immediately. He stated ,”Based on the Lisbon Declaration we are moving into a completely new situation and a new posture for NATO forces in Afghanistan which needs to be clearly stated…Disagreement between NATO states be resolved immediately. The gap between now and first January 2015 must be clarified. The two time slots between now and first January 2015, and from 2015 onwards must be coupled”.

In the next NATO summit in Chicago in May 2015, NATO commanders want to see the exact plan for the withdrawal of NATO forces. It is clear that the withdrawal of NATO forces depends on the prevailing situation on the ground, which presently is precarious, and may not improve during 2013. In effect Leo Panetta’s declaration of withdrawal by mid 2013 is seen as unreal and impractical. So is President Obama’s wish to withdraw US troops by mid 2013, which is political posturing and not militarily practical. Some US troops will withdraw, but the bulk of US forces are unlikely to leave till 2015. The US cannot leave and allow the Taliban to destabilize and destroy whatever has been achieved. US and NATO are determined to see viable Afghan armed forces, able to ensure security and stability after ISAF departure.

AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY

Afghan National Army with 300000 troops is planned and is being trained and equipped to take over the role of internal security and national defense. The present ANA strength is 176000 officers and soldiers. By 2015 it will have 260000 personnel on its role. The Afghan National Army is commanded by Lt General Sher Mohammad Karimi. Presently the ANA is responsible for 40% operations. By the end of 2015, full one hundred percent responsibility for nations defense will be with The Afghan Army. But it has several limitations and constraints.

ISAF will continue to train the ANA and the Police to take over from the ISAF. Afghanistan has no tradition of professional armed forces. The largely un-educated manpower is not readily trainable. The Afghan Police has 143000 officers and constables, whose indiscipline and corruption has become a headache for the ISAF. Billions of Dollars worth equipment has been supplied and military facilities have been created by NATO. More than 4000 US Army instructors are training the Afghan Army, and will continue in that role after 2015.

The Army has six regional Corps, with 14 Infantry Brigades. Besides the ANA had armor, commando and Quick Reaction battalions. Each Army Corps has three to four Brigades. Each Brigade has four infantry battalions. The Afghanistan Army Corps has the manpower of a Pakistan Army Infantry Division. The Army Brigades are regionally oriented, and have been assigned specific areas to defend. The US supplied weapons include Humvees, M-16 Assault Rifles, body armor jackets.

First Brigade of No 201 Corps is responsible for the security of the Presidential Palace and defense of Kabul. Besides the No 201 Corps is responsible for the defense of Logar, Kapisa, and Laghman provinces. It is also responsible for the security of vital routes running south to north, and valleys leading from Pakistani border into Afghanistan. The 3rd Brigade of No 201 Corps is in control of the area of responsibility without the aid and assistance of US or Coalition Forces.

The HQ of No 203 Corps is at Gardez, with the First Brigade at Khost, 2nd Brigade at Rushmore, and at a forward base in Paktia province. The 3rd Brigade is at Ghazni. The Corps is supported by a squadron of ANAAC.

No 205 Corps at Qandhar is he largest Corps of the Afghan Army with five Infantry brigades. It has integrated artillery and airlift capability. Its area of responsibility covers Qandhar, Zabul and Oruzgan provinces. In support is a Commando battalion and Afghan Air Force Wing of eight helicopters and four C27 A Tactical transport support aircraft. This Corps has been engaged with ISAF support in some heavy fighting against Taliban forces. It is a battle hardened Corps. It is in urgent need of integrated armor and air support.

No 207 Corps is deployed in Heart, with the First Infantry Brigade responsible for the defense of Heart, and 2nd Brigade and a Commando battalion is responsible for the defense of Farah province. In support is the Afghan Air Force with eight helicopters and four C-27 transport aircraft for tactical support operations.

No 209 Corps is stationed at Mazar-e-Sharif, with one Brigade for the security of Mazar-e-Sharif province and one at Kanduz. In support is the Afghan Air Force with eight transport helicopters, two gunship helicopters and four C-27 transport support aircraft and two medical helicopters.

No 215 Corps with HQ at Lashkar Garh – the capitol of Helmand Province is the sixth Corps of the Afghan National Army. It is responsible for the defense and internal security of Helmand, Farah and Nimroz provinces. Major General Syed Mullick is the Corps commander.

In addition to the six Infantry Corps, the ANA has the 111 Capital Army Division with two infantry brigades. One Brigade called the Special Security Brigade has the mission of undefined “Special Security”.

The Afghan National Army also has Special Forces Units, comprising one under training Quick Reaction Battalion, equipped with 352 Mobile Strike Force Vehicles ( MSFV’s). The first batch of 58 MSFV’s have arrived in Kabul.

Weaknesses and Limitations

The Afghan National Army is very new, and will take time to turn itself into a first rate fighting force. The resolve of President Karzai and determination of ANA commanders and resolve of ISAF commanders to train and give ANA the capability to fight and defeat the insurgents and terrorists is a redeeming feature.

The weakness of the ANA soldiers is lack of discipline and addiction to drugs. Five to ten percent soldiers are addicted to drugs, and smoking of Charas-Marijuana which is overlooked. Afghan soldiers smoke sitting in trenches, indicating low discipline and poor morale. Drug addiction by ANA troops needs attention and cure. An Army high on the pot will be routed by the Taliban, who will take on the role of Mujahidin as soon as bulk of ISAF forces exit. Whenever the ISAF troops withdraw, Taliban fighters have moved in, because they meet little resistance from Afghan ANA and Police. The personnel of Afghan Security Forces often go over to the Taliban with their weapons because the Taliban offer better pay and security for the families of Afghan soldiers. There is fear of mass desertions after the ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Demands of President Karzai for the removal of US troops from villages is in order after the massacre of 16 Afghan women and children by Staff Sergeant Robert Bales. But this call is more to alleviate public anger. Quick ISAF exit from the country side will cripple military operations, because Taliban fighters will quickly occupy vacated villages. The escalating tensions between US and Afghan officials have come in the middle of negotiations over a long term agreement that would allow American forces to remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014.

President Karzai is a realist for wanting US forces to stay on till the Afghan National Army, the AAF and the Police develops the capability for internal security. Washington will not leave Afghanistan, till Afghan Security Forces are able to ensure that the Taliban do not take over. This means a long stay in “Advisory”, as well as combat assistance roles.

Afghan Security Forces have some stark deficiencies and weaknesses which need to be fixed. First off-course are poor discipline, poor leadership, low morale and lack of administrative skills and off-course unabated corruption. Afghanistan needs its own fully combat ready Army, Air Force, equipped with gunship helicopters and attack aircraft for search and destroy operations. This will take several years of weapon procurement and pilot and technician training.

AFGHAN AIR FORCE

Without an air force, there is no way to fight the Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters successfully. In the rough Afghan terrain with high mountains, hills and deep valleys, the Taliban live and hide and could fight a guerrilla war for decades. They have the advantage of crossing across into the adjoining Pakistani tribal areas for rest and reinforcements. The Afghan National Army needs to be supported by the people and an efficient Air Force to provide air intelligence about the hide outs and whereabouts of the hiding guerrillas. The Afghan Air Force should have ground attack capability like that of the Pakistan Air Force.

The Afghan Air Force is responsible for air defense and air warfare.

Priority has been accorded for the development of the Afghan Air Force, but it will take a long time to become a combat ready force. Afghan Air Force is under the command of Major General Abdul Wahab Wardak. The AAF Air Headquarter is at Kabul International Airport, which also is the main air force base. Shindand Air Force base is for pilot and technician training. Since 2007 US led Combined Air Power Transition Force (CAPTF) is working to rebuild the Afghan Air Force.

Currently the Afghan Air Force has one hundred aircraft and five thousand personnel including officers. By 2016 the NATO Training Mission expects to raise the AAF strength to 8000 well trained flying and technical personnel. By then 140 progressively advanced aircraft and weapon systems will be inducted.

In 2008 President Hamid Karzai inaugurated the new Afghan Air Force Headquarters and the 201 Kabul Air Wing. The Air Force Cantonment adjacent to the Kabul Airport has state of the art modern hangars, Operational, Logistic and billeting facilities, built by American engineers.

The second large Afghan Air Force base with extensive flying and engineering facilities is under construction at the Qandhar International Airport.

Since 2009 AAF pilots, flight cadets and technicians are being regularly going to the United States for English Language courses, flying and technical training. The plan is to produce large numbers of fully trained, instrument rated pilots in the United States. Also under training in the US are aircraft engineers and technicians. These US trained pilots, engineers and aircraft technicians will the back bone of the future Afghan Air Force.

Equipment

In September 2009 the Afghan Air Force began receiving refurbished C 27 A Spartan Tactical Transport aircraft, and MI – 17 VS HIP transport helicopters. In 2010 number of women pilots were trained as pilots. In March the AAF received 22 C-27 -A transport aircraft and 35 new MI-17 HIP helicopters and nine MI-35 gunship helicopters. This large force is engaged in anti-terrorist operations. Today the Afghan Air Force has 145 multi-type aircraft, and 44 helicopters. The Afghan Air Force has eight jet capable airfields and 18 airstrips for light aircraft operations.

For the present and the future ten years the Afghan National Army and the Afghan Air Force will need United States Air Force and NATO Air Forces help to fight and contain the insurgency.

For Pakistan Afghanistan is an extremely important neighbor. Pakistan does not need an Afghanistan which is the perpetual vortex of strife and civil war. Peaceful Afghanistan means a peaceful Pakistan. Afghanistan needs a broad based government of national reconciliation. Terrorist elements in North Waziristan and Orakzai Agencies want to destabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will be good for Kabul and Islamabad to come closer, and cooperate to ensure peace in both the countries, and enduring friendship.

BY: AIR MARSHAL (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN