SPY EYES

“While we cannot know all that the New Year will bring, we do know this: the United States will continue to stand with Israel, because the bond between our two nations is unshakable.”Obama’s Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) public message, conveniently omits any mention of Palestine whatsoever, as opposed to his speech last year. This should however come as no shock. As the possibility of a Palestinian State is becoming increasingly ‘real’, the President seems to be getting cold feet. Obama’s diplomacy and expertise can surely leave two opposing parties satisfied by the end of a carefully articulated speech; but when it comes to acting, can any amount of charisma be enough to satisfy both ends? The Palestinian state is closer to becoming a reality than ever before. Considering the recent misconduct of their (US’s) favorite ally (Israel), the Palestinian cause has gained much support worldwide. Mahmoud Abbas has earned the status of a hero overnight. Opinion polls have shown 48% American citizens in favor of the Palestinian bid at the United Nations.
A strong majority in three large European Union Countries- Germany, France and UK- have also backed the Palestinian bid. The poll for pro-Palestinian NGO Avaaz, prior to the UN General Assembly in New York on September 13, showed that 69% of people in France, 71% in Germany and 59% in the UK wanted their leaders to support the Palestinian bid.

Muslim states that have boasted a history of supporting Israel were quick to pick sides.
Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogen, at the UN General Assembly described the Israel-Palestine conflict as a ‘bleeding wound’ that the International Community will not tolerate anymore. He accused Israel for closing all channels to negotiation.
“If you want to send a box of tomatoes to Palestine, this is subject to approval from Israel, and I don’t think that is humanitarian,”

Erdogen emphasized that with the Political Climate in the Arab World changing; Israel could no longer prolong this strife. The tension is rooted in differences over the Gaza Strip, particularly the raid, on the Turkish-organized flotilla trying to run the Gaza blockade, by Israeli military which left eight Turks and a Turkish-American dead.

Although Egypt and Israel share a peace treaty since 1979, tensions between the two countries have grown dramatically this month, with protesters breaking into the Israeli Embassy in Egypt and tossing documents from the windows.

Similarly, given the volatile state in the Arab World, the US and the United Nations might face a severe setback if the US decides to continue with the veto, in isolation of the interests of the World at large. Arab leaders have warned that if US chooses to overlook the tide of international sentiment, it will only lose credibility in the Arab region. Their leaders, under domestic and regional pressure will be forced to part ways with Washington. The Saudi Government has clearly stated that in such a situation they will be forced to withdraw cooperation with Washington in Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Farther East we have US’s relations with Pakistan going downhill at a pace faster than ever. The US allegations against Pakistan regarding the Haqqani Network attacks and that this ‘terrorist group’ is in fact a veritable arm of the ISI have stoked anti American sentiment in Pakistan. The
Establishment and the different elements have united in their stand against US allegations. With bold statements coming from Islamabad, Washington might want to re-think its plan of action. Disappointments back home escalating and having pushed their relationship with Pakistan on to thin ice should Obama risk standing by Israel alone?

With US sponsored negotiations at an impasse even after decades, settlement building continuing unabated, humiliation of subjugation to the Israeli authorities, and all other forms of leverage exhausted, the Palestinians have decided at last to turn towards the United Nations to seek recognition. They ideally want full membership, but are willing to accept the position of a non member ‘Observer State’ if the United States exercises its right to veto the bid, and they manage to win a Majority Vote in the General Assembly.

The main reason that US gives for their decision to veto is that Palestinians and Israelis must solve their problems with each other. Membership in the United Nations will not solve any of the critical outstanding issue. When demanding their right to the United Nations platform and status as a State, the Palestinians are not under the delusion that membership in and of itself will deliver. Nor do they envision the realization of a stable Palestinian State within hours of this new status. Rather this is perceived by them as what could become a major milestone; they merely want to be on the same footing as Israel. For negotiations to be mutually beneficial the Palestinians feel the need to be granted the Status equivalent to that of their adversaries. Why should a State ever feel the need to bargain with ‘rebels’?

In such a situation why should the US despite knowing the deteriorating conditions of the  Palestinians, and the growing frustrations amongst the Muslim World regarding the rigidity of the unconditional alliance between Israel and US, suggest talks must persist?

For the United States and the European Union to be successful in their frenzied efforts to head off the UN vote by kick-starting real negotiations is almost impossible. What is likely and even probable however is that after US uses her veto as member of the Security Council, the General Assembly would deliver a strong majority and Palestine would thus enjoy the immediate status of an Observer State.

It is difficult to imagine Israel’s leadership changing course at this point, and it is probably too late for the Obama administration to break away from the domestic political vice in which it seems pinned on this issue. But being on the wrong side of history is never a comfortable position. And that is exactly where the US, Israel, and its closest friends will be if they defy the tide of international sentiment in favor of moving now to recognize Palestinian statehood.