SPY EYES

Washington D.C. Wednesday 19 October, 2011: According to a book recently written by senior Indian journalist, Professor Brahma Chellaney, titled, “WATER: Asia’s New Battleground,” (recently published by Harper Collins) the world’s future battles will take place on the issue of water as it used to be, and still happen over under ground Oil. It seems things are slowly heating up as India has recently dared to intrude into China’s backyard – the South China Sea.

A confrontation is surfacing in the South China Sea over, an oil exploration deal between India and Vietnam. China has reacted angrily and made its intentions clear to the Indian rulers and every one else, that Beijing will protect its interests by force as is evident from a recent article in the Beijing-based Global Times, which essay did not mince any words, when it was headlined, “Time to teach those around South China Sea a lesson”.

According to Brahma Chellaney’s book nowhere else does this frightening prospect, of war over ‘water’ is possible as it is between China and India over the river waters flowing down from Chinese Tibet into the South Asian subcontinent. China as an upper riparian state may do to India what India as an upper riparian has been doing to Sikh Punjab, Bangladesh and Pakistan. and play the ‘water’ card with the waters of the Brahmaputra River and the Sutlej River which flow into the South Asian subcontinent from Chinese Tibet. No wonder the ill advised, nay stupid, provocative move by India to sign an oil exploration deal with Vietnam in the South China Sea (on which the ‘Middle Kingdom’ has a prior claim) has provoked China to publicly react last week in anger with an article in the Beijing-based, state-owned, Global Times headlined, “Time to teach those around South China Sea a lesson”.

Brahma Chellaney is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, an ‘independent’ Indian think-tank; he is a Member of the Board of Governors of the National Book Trust of India; and is also an Affiliate with the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College London. Until recently, he was also a Member of the Policy Advisory Group headed by the External Affairs Minister of India. He is widely known as a commentator on regional and international issues in the field of strategic affairs, including larger Asian strategic issues and non-traditional subjects like water security, energy security and climate security. In his above mentioned book on water Prof. Chellaney has conveniently forgotten to mention the Sikh Homeland of Indian occupied Punjab which is being slowly destroyed (desertification) by trickery as a result of its river water resource being drained (stolen) by non-riparian Indian states of Rajasthan and Haryana, for over half a century. To his credit however, Brahma Chellaney, was the only Indian journalist, who reported fairly on the uncalled for June 1984 Indian Army assault on the holiest Sikh shrine of Darbar

Sahib (known as the ‘Golden Temple’ in the West) located in Amritsar, in which bloody operation thousands of innocent Sikh pilgrims (men, women and children) were murdered during that horrible state-sponsored act of terrorism during which tanks and artillery was used on unarmed Sikh civilians.

In his book “Water: Asia’s New Battleground”, Brahma Chellaney says that the rise of the middle class, along with relentless urbanization and global warming, is putting huge pressure on Asia’s water supply, already under strain due to the rice-based agrarian system. Though the entire continent is likely to be engulfed in the water war, it’s in South Asia that the real threat exists — and the blame for which, according to Brahma Chellaney, primarily lies with China’s unquenchable thirst for water. He asserts that, “Battles in the past were fought over land. Today, they are being waged for energy. And, those in future will take place on the issue of water. Nowhere else does this prospect look more frighteningly real than in Asia. Although home to more than half the human population, the Asian landmass has less fresh water than any continent other than Antarctica, with its per capita freshwater availability being less than half the global average. Incidentally, Asia uses almost twice as much water per capita as Latin America, which has the highest potential water availability in the world. What explains the Chinese obsession with water?

One obvious reason being the fact that China, currently ‘the workshop for the world,’ is becoming drier by the year. Severe droughts occurred in 2000, 2007 and 2009. According to a report, about 24,000 villages in north and west China were abandoned over the past 50 years because of desertification. Worse, the country’s freshwater reserves declined 13 per cent between 2000 and 2009. In his book, “Water: Asia’s New Battleground”, Brahma Chellaney says that the rise of the middle class, along with relentless urbanization and global warming, is putting huge pressure on Asia’s water supply, already under strain due to the rice-based agrarian system. Though the entire continent is likely to be engulfed in the water war, it’s in South Asia that the real threat exists”.

According to Chellaney’s book China, in its bid to meet its ever-escalating water needs, now threatens the ecological viability of river systems tied to South and South-East Asia. No wonder, the idea of a Great South-North Water Transfer Project, diverting Tibetan waters to the desiccated north, has the backing of Chinese President Hu Jintao, a hydrologist himself. The first phase of this project calls for building 300 km of tunnels and channels to draw waters from the Jinsha, Yalong and Dadu rivers, on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau. In the second phase, the Brahmaputra waters may be re-routed northward, in what will be as good as a declaration of water war on India and Bangladesh. Probably after that could be the turn of the Sutlej Rver which also rises in Chinese Tibet and flows into Sikh-majority Indian occupied Punjab, Khalistan. During he annual rainy season – the summer Monsoons – sometimes some water is allowed to flow into Pakistan after manipulation by the engineers of the Bhakra Dam to create a flood situation in the lower riparian Sindh province of Pakistan as it did this year.

Following India’s sneaky deal with Vietnam for exploring for oil in the South China Sea, on which China had a prior claim, the angry Chinese government tasked a strategic analyst of the China Energy Fund Committee to write an article for the English language Beijing-based GLOBAL TIMES newspaper, (a daily tabloid under the auspices of the official Chinese Communist Party newspaper, the People’s Daily) focusing on international issues. The Global Times article, which did not mince any words, carried the following headline, “Time to teach those around South China Sea a lesson”.

The article said that, “China, concentrating on interior development and harmony, has been ultimately merciful in preventing such issue turning into a global affair so that regional peace and prosperity can be secured… Unfortunately, though hammered by China in the 1974 Xisha Island Battle and later the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979, Vietnam’s insults in the South China Sea remain unpunished until today. It has encouraged nearby countries to try their hands in the ‘disputed’ area and has attracted the attention of the US so that a regional conflict has gradually turned international… Singapore brings to the region high-end stealth aircraft while Australia, India and Japan are all stockpiling arms for a possible ‘world-class’ battle. The US, did not hesitate to meet the demands of all of the above; it is provoking regional conflict. It’s very amusing to see some of the countries vow to threaten or even confront China with force just because the US announced that it has ‘returned’ to Asia”.

The Global Times article goes on to say that, “The tension of war is escalating second by second but the initiative is not in our hand. China should take part in the exploitation of oil and gas in South China Sea. For those who infringe upon our sovereignty to steal the oil, we need to warn them politely, and then take action if they don’t respond. But it is probably the right time for us to reason, think ahead and strike first before things gradually run out of hands. It seems all the countries around the area are preparing for an arms race… However, being rational restraint will always be our guiding principle on this matter.

We should make good preparations for a small-scale battle, while giving the other side the option of war or peace. Russia’s decisive move on the Caspian Sea issues in 2008 proved that actions from bigger countries might cause a shockwave for a little while but will provide its region with long-term peace.