Showing posts with label violence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label violence. Show all posts

Most likely coups in 2014

Posted by Admin On Saturday, 1 February 2014 0 comments
BY MAX FISHER
Coups are bad news for any country. They weaken the rule of law, throw governments into chaos, undermine or outright jettison democratic norms and institutions, and can lead to violence, oppression or worse. They can also be tough to see coming, particularly since the people looking for them tend to focus on a single country, which can lead them to overemphasize local events and understate the broader dynamics that make coups happen, or not.
That’s a big part of why political scientist Jay Ulfelder has, for the past three years, maintained a mathematical model to predict the likelihood of coups in almost every country around the world. By tracking over a dozen variables – from political system to years of independence the presence of absence of an “elite” ethnic group – Ulfelder’s model roughly estimates the likelihood that each country will experience a coup this year. He “trained” the model by applying it over the years 1960 to 2010, further developing its ability to predict future coups by looking at past ones.
Ulfelder kindly shared his full dataset with me, which I’ve mapped out above. The redder countries are at higher risk for a coup and the yellower countries at lower risk. You can read his post here for much, much more about how he designed this model and what makes it work.
Here are a few notes to help you read this map. First, even the most extreme cases are well below a 50 percent likelihood of a coup, meaning that a coup probably won’t occur. Those would be the West African countries of Guinea and Mali (26.5 percent and 22.7 percent likelihoods of coups) and Madagascar, at 23.9 percent likelihood. Those numbers are high enough, though, to be appropriately alarming. Second, the numbers drop off quickly, with the vast majority of countries less than 5 percent likelihood of a coup, and half of them less than 1.5 percent. So the difference between a dark red country and a light orange or yellow country is very significant.
There are a few immediately obvious trends in the data. First, it doesn’t look good for sub-Saharan Africa, which has the top nine most at-risk countries. Not all of Africa, to be clear, much of which is quite stable, but the risk is heavily concentrated in Africa’s Sahel region (that east-west strip just below the Saharan desert) and in West and Central Africa. There are complex political, ethnic and post-colonial reasons for this,which I wrote about here. Looking forward, political instability and competition risks holding back a part of the world that is otherwise poised for long-overdue economic growth.
Here is a chart Ulfelder put together showing the 40 most at-risk countries. For each country, he’s run two different models and then averaged the results. That bold dot is the average score:
The 40 countries most at risk for a coup in 2014 (Jay Ulfelder)
The stand-outs beyond sub-Saharan Africa also tell some interesting stories. The highest-ranked non-African country is Thailand, with a projected 10.9 percent likelihood of a coup this year. By some measurements, Thailand has more coups than any other countries on earth (here’s why) and is currently experiencing another round of protests and political turmoil. Afghanistan and Pakistan are at high risk, though for different reasons (deep ethnic and political competition in Afghanistan, an independent-leaning military in Pakistan, weak civilian governments in both). Egypt, which saw a coup in 2013, has a projected 9 percent chance of another this year. Further afield are Haiti and Ecuador, the only two countries in the Western hemisphere with significant risks for coups, with 9.2 and 8.5 percent projected, respectively. (This is why I wrote, in June, that NSA leaker Edward Snowden would be wise to turn down Ecuador’s offer of asylum; the next government could change its mind.)
It’s also worth pausing to appreciate the luxury many countries have of not worrying about coups. A lot of democratic as well as authoritarian states, rich as well as poor, have strong enough rule of law and institutional norms that they don’t have to worry about coups. Ulfelder’s model predicts only a 0.15 percent chance in the United States; many Western democracies show similar scores. So do some countries experiencing political turmoil, such as Greece and Cuba (0.14 and 0.21 percent risk, respectively). Iran, for all its problems and political infighting, only rates a 1.43 percent chance of a coup. That’s probably great news for the United States: even if we don’t like the Iranian government, it’s preferable to chaos, and a government that can negotiate without worrying about a military coup has a freer hand to accept any U.S. nuclear deal.
For more on coups, what makes them likely or not, and the implications of this data, bookmark Ulfelder’s blog, which will be revisiting these topics throughout the year.

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A change of heart

Posted by Admin On Saturday, 25 January 2014 0 comments
A question in dire need of tackling: whether or not we can ‘go get ‘em’? In the recent years Pakistan has contemplated many possible solutions to our biggest problem. As the Venn diagram of possibilities expanded to the likes Sequoiadendron giganteu, the people remain equally perplexed. We place the blame on our leaders’ shoulders, while the government remains silent, except when ‘regretting’ a tragic incident. Since the government has been elected in May 2013, and more than seven months after taking the oath, negligible progress can be seen.
The beginning of 2014 has been with a new wave of violence, as polio workers, Shia Muslims and the police/ security forces have been targeted even multiple times in a day. The Mastung attacks on the Shia pilgrims followed by a two day sit in by thousands of Hazaras, refusing to bury their 28 dead till justice was reached, have pushed a long due operation. Khawaja Asif, the defense minister, admits the hour is crucial for a forceful decision.
Chaudhry Nisar in charge of anti-terrorism strategy is the key man in this equation. While last month all energy was channelized towards the ‘drone’ killing of TTP leader Hakimullah, it wasn’t shocking that only this week a study revealed how harmless the notorious drone attacks have been to the peace loving citizen. One might want to ask: Why now? Why after all the hue and cry and international attention towards sovereignty woes? Why after Jemima and her lobbying for a safer Pakistan, when the case was all ready for the International Criminal Court? Why after Nabila and her family went to Washington to ask for justice of their grandmother’s death?
The “sabotaged” peace efforts with the TTP have been smoothly brushed aside. Because drone strikes were never all that bad anyway, we are now told. Now, in the face of relentless attacks by the TTP, Nisar is ready to admit that those Taliban who have spurned his offer of talks will have to be dealt with severely. But by the government’s own admission, only six or seven groups out of some 60 or so have indicated a dubious willingness to talk. This means that, for all intents and purposes, talk of serious peace negotiations with the TTP is off the table.
Imran Khan, the spoke in the wheel, has also changed his stance visibly in the aftermath of TTP attacks on the army and polio program. Now you must understand: the “good” Taliban are not like the “bad” Taliban (who are carrying out the attacks), Khan stresses. Much as he hates the Nawaz League and wants to extract optimum mileage out of the PM’s indecisiveness and anxiety, even he can’t pretend that the TTP comprises ill-advised souls who just need some tender loving.
Even Baby Bhutto has called Khan a coward in his latest, more impressive, address. Enough anti-Shia sentiment has been earned, now is the time for remedies, and while the media also takes a suave shift towards an operation as the sole solution; he must pick his side astutely.  To make matters worse, a recent fatwa has caught fire and turned to dust any remaining sympathizers and Jihadi cause. The 29 page fatwa criticizes media houses and journalists and put out a hit list.
Lastly GHQ is seething with rage. The army has retaliated against TTP strongholds in Mirali with punitive might without a thought for civilian casualties. Can we consequently predict that a military operation is on the cards against all Taliban strongholds? Can we expect the prime minister to address the nation and tell us why he has been compelled to take off the velvet glove and reveal his iron fist?
The army has longed for an appropriate law to tackle terrorism without fear of incompetent courts and faulty prosecution out of fear. In effect, the government has finally pushed for a Protection of Pakistan Law under which the law-enforcement agencies will have more powers to detain and prosecute terrorists. This is akin to much needed sweeping legislation enacted by countries most severely hit by terrorism like the US, UK, India, etc. The idea behind pushing through the law is to strengthen the hand of the military and administration as the fallout of the impending military operation in which thousands of terrorists may have to be rounded up.
If you think the stakeholders are all on the same page, then hold on, not yet. A serious problem looms at hand that threatens our resolve: The Supreme Court’s crusade against the secret military agencies of the state that are responsible for the “missing” persons of Balochistan and FATA. The timing of the new legislation has seemingly annoyed the judges. Justice Jawad Khawaja, heading the SC bench hearing the missing persons’ case, has challenged to determine its constitutionality. Clearly the bench is distrustful that the new law may thwart the SC’s heroic efforts as the knight in shining armor, bringing justice to the people.
If a new military operation is reliant upon a new law but the new law fails to meet with the consent of the SC and is either struck down or diluted, a state of acute tension between key stakeholders of the state will be inevitable. The first casualty of such state of affairs will be the war on terrorism itself. The end result of such conflict of interests may force the military to take one-sided, ad hoc disciplinary action in which no captives are taken, which would fall far short of a required full-fledged anti-terrorism stratagem in which all key stakeholders are on the same page.
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Machinations of power and bloodshed in Karachi

Posted by FS On Wednesday, 14 November 2012 0 comments

USIP Report by Human Yusuf Spearhead Research A very comprehensive report on the situation in Karachi which is the economic heart of Pakistan. The main contributors to violence in Karachi...
USIP Report by Human Yusuf
Spearhead Research
A very comprehensive report on the situation in Karachi which is the economic heart of Pakistan. The main contributors to violence in Karachi have been identified as the parties within the ruling alliance along with Sunni Tehreek, Sindhi nationalists and influx of Taliban. The Government has not and does not seem to have the will to solve the problem which goes on aggravating and may go beyond even a military action if remedial measures are not initiated. The police remains politicized and the only focus is on next elections while Karachi burns. Modern day Neros? The Sindh Government is paralyzed with an aged Chief Minister while some other personalities within the ruling party keep calling shots. Unfortunately the Government is allowing situation to worsen with each passing day. It has become impossible for any business to work and traders are virtually in revolt. Pakistan is becoming ungovernable and Karachi may become the trigger for a bloody uprising. Please read this report from end to end and give a thought to the future of our homeland.
Summary
││ Violence in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, is multifaceted. Different types of violence-including ethnopolitical, militant, sectarian, and criminal-have claimed more than 7,000 lives since 2008.
││ Violence in Karachi threatens to destabilize Pakistan for both economic and political reasons. The city contributes more than 25 percent of gross domestic product, and disruptions in urban economic activities necessarily affect the national economy. Moreover, the ethnically diverse city is a battleground for major political parties and thus key to domestic political stability.
││ The armed wings of major political parties, including the MQM, PPP, and ANP, are the main perpetrators of urban violence. The parties clash over city resources and funds generated through extortion.
││ Historically, Karachi’s ethnopolitical violence has pitted Urdu-speaking mohajirs (migrants) of the MQM against Pashtuns represented by the ANP. But clashes between the rural, Sindh-based PPP and Karachi-centric MQM are increasing as part of a broader power struggle between the city- and provincial-level governments.
││ Militant groups, including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and extremist sectarian organizations, have consolidated their presence in the city. In addition to drawing new recruits and generating funds through criminal activities, militants increasingly attack state and security targets in Karachi.
││ State initiatives to stem violence are superficial and ad hoc, and routinely fail to address the underlying causes of Karachi’s violence, including poor urban planning, politicization of the police, proliferating seminary networks, and a flawed criminal justice system.
││ High-level interventions by the Pakistan Army and Supreme Court have helped temporarily disrupt cycles of violence but do not offer sustainable solutions to Karachi’s violent politics.
││ The key to Karachi’s stability is a representative power-sharing agreement among the major political parties that reflects the city’s evolving demographics. However, the delay in conducting a transparent census and the failure to establish an uninterruptible platform for political negotiations continue to fuel violence.

Download Full Report:

CONFLICT DYNAMICS IN KARACHI

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